YouGov/Citizenship Foundation But how much importance can we attach to it? Thanks to Gabble for spotting that YouGov have put up on their web-site the result of a 4,000 sample poll of 14 – 25 years olds which was carried out over the past fortnight. The dataset runs to an enormous 200 pages and covers a whole range of issues about this age group’s view of the politics. There was a voting intention question which asked “Which TWO or THREE,…
What does it mean for the election outcome? I’m not sure whether there’ll be any new polls in the Sunday papers and it would be really good to see a new ICM survey. For the big trend in the past few few weeks has been the decline of the Tory share into the 30s so that now only ICM is showing a figure above that threshold. Polls tend to move in step changes and that might be what we have…
CON ???? LAB ???? LD ???? OTHERS ????? Only detail so far – “Tories 16% ahead” According to the blog of the Independent’s political editor, Andrew Grice, there’s a Comres poll in his paper tomorrow that will have the Tories 16 percent ahead. That compares with the C39-L25-LD17 from the most recent survey from the firm where the fieldwork finished a fortnight ago. (HAT-tip Planetnokia) So it looks as though ComRes is in the same broad area as PB’s exclusive…
Is Labour improving on the PH marginals poll? Thanks to Wibbler on the previous thread for spotting this – which looks intriguing particularly because the last major marginals poll that had a lot of detail from the north, the PoliticsHome one in September, showed a disproportionate move from Labour to the Tories. It had LAB>CON swings of around the 10% mark in the North-West, West Yorkshire and the North-East and suggested that at least 31 seats could change hands. It’s…
Could their rise be disguising the scale of the swing? The big trend from almost all the polls in recent weeks week has been the increase in the share for “others” – UKIP, the Greens, the BNP and SNP/PC in Scotland and Wales. In some surveys they are now more than double the 8.2% that they got between them at the 2005 general election A question for anybody wanting to bet on and/or predict the outcome is whether these historically…
UKPollingReport Can you predicts its next set of numbers? I don’t think that there’s been a poll in recent times that has had such an impact on the media narrative that the November Political Monitor from Ipsos-MORI. Even though it’s now four days since it was published and nearly a week and a half since the fieldwork close the general election outcome that it suggested is still being mulled over by “serious” commentators. So what do you think the pollster…
House of Commons Research paper But how important was it going to be anyway The latest YouGov poll of Scottish opinion has added to the growing narrative about a hung parliament. For the shares it found north of the border had Labour back at 2005 general election levels suggesting that the party is not going to suffer the losses that many had been predicting. The shares from the survey were comparisons on the last Scottish YouGov poll – CON 18%(-2):…
Never forget the “Golden Polling Rule? In the feeding frenzy that’s followed the Observer MORI poll we’ve seen so-called experts rushing in to pontificate because they thought they had a story. The election was not a foregone conclusion after all. But there’s an inconvenient truth that you hardly hear mentioned – what PB regulars will know as “The Golden Polling Rule”. This is that whenever polls have been tested against real election results it’s been the survey with Labour in…