CON 43% (37) LAB 26% (31) LD 20% (17) OTHERS 11% (16) So all the speculation was wrong News is just coming in of the much talked about MORI poll where the fieldwork took place last weekend. The assumption had been that because ICM, which had polled at the same time, had reported a rising Labour share into the 30s then MORI would do the same. Well it hasn’t and the figures are above. They come as much as a…
CON 40% (40) LAB 24% (23) LD 20%(19) OTHERS 15% (18) And others decline a bit too These are the figures just in from our latest survey where the fieldwork started on Wednesday and finished only this morning. Importantly this survey started two days after that for last weekend’s polls by ICM and MORI finished – so it is more up to date. We are, of course, still waiting for the latter to appear. Although Angus Reid has been showing…
UKPollingReport Look what happens to Labour when pollsters don’t adjust The June 4th election for the EU parliament was the last occasion when we could test the output of a range of pollsters against real votes in a national election – and the outcome is featured in the above UKPollingReport table. The numbers to focus on are the Labour and Tory shares. Of the four pollsters that did EU election polls ICM and Populus weighted their sample by what respondents…
PaddyPower Should you be piling on at 13/8? Given recent polls and the widespread belief that government’s always recover as we get closer to the election date then the 30% plus segment in PaddyPower’s Labour percentage vote market seems an absolute snip. The 13/8 is a pretty good price given that all you are betting is that the final vote percentage is above that. Note, and we will be repeating this a lot in the coming weeks and months, this…
ICMResearch Could it even show Labour to be level-pegging? Thanks to the Lib Dem poll watcher, Mark Senior, on a previous thread for highlighting the very high proportion of 2005 Labour supporters in the sample for the latest Guardian ICM poll. From the table it can be seen that one in two of those who said they had voted at the last election told the pollster that they had opted for Labour. Contrast that with the 36.1% GB share that…
York Outer – 0.44% (Lab 27%) Romsey & Southampton N: 0.46% (Lab 10.9%) Cheltenham: 0.66% (Lab 11.8%) Eastleigh: 1.12% (Lab 21.1%) Westmorland & Lonsdale: 1.7% (Lab 7.8%) Hereford & N Herefordshire: 2.4% (Lab 10.2%) Carshalton & Wallington: 2.93% (Lab 17.3%) Taunton Deane: 3.3% (Lab 12.1%) Chippenham: 4.7% (Lab 16.8%) Leeds NW: 5% (Lab 31.9%) Torbay: 6% (Lab 14.5%) Sutton & Cheam: 6.2% (Lab 11.8%) Camborne & Redruth: 7.1% (Lab 25.6%) Richmond Park: 7.1% (Lab 9.25%%) Cheadle: 7.4% (Lab 9.9%) Portsmouth…
Can we expect a firmer view on the PBR reaction? Those who were hoping that the polls taken in the immediate aftermath of Alistair Darling’s PBR statement might give an indication of how it has gone down were disappointed. For there was a huge contrast between the online YouGov family of polls and that of the phone pollster, Comres. The former was showing the Labour deficit down three to just nine points while the latter had the gap widening by…
The PB Index: CON MAJ 60 (nc) After a night which has seen two very different views on the state of political opinion in the country what better than to look at how punters are reacting. Are they putting their cash behind the YouGov 40-31-16 or the ComRes 41-24-21? That’s a huge variation in the Labour share which it is hard to explain. Today’s PB Index, which is calculated by taking the average of mid-points on the main seat betting…