Or will “BullyGate” boost the blues? In an hour or so we’ll get the YouGov daily poll for the Sun and the Tories must be hoping that it’ll show a reversal in the trend of recent weeks. The fieldwork started at 5pm last night and finished at 5pm this evening – so it’s pretty up to date – and is likely to have Labour benefiting much less from the after-glow of their Warwick gathering at the weekend. It will also…
CON 37 % (39) LAB 30% (30) LD 20% (20) But why is Labour not getting the benefit? (This piece has had to be hacked about because the paper’s website reported the wrong fieldwork dates. Sorry folks – blame the Guardian) The February poll by ICM for the Guardian is just out and shows a decline of three points in the Tory share with Labour and the Lib Dems holding firm.The big increase is the three point rise in “others”….
Does Rawnsley add to the case against the UNS? Tucked away in the Observer print edition of the Rawnsley book there are a couple of revealing passages which underline the case we’ve been making strongly on PB over the past fortnight on the Uniform National Swing – the simple way of estimating what given poll numbers mean in terms of commons seats at the election. On September 22nd 2007 Brown and his aides received a presentation on a marginals poll…
CON 38% (40) LAB 30% (29) LD 20% (21) And is Labour winning the Muslim vote? There’s a new ComRes poll which was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday shortly after the Gordon Brown TV extravaganza on ITV. It’s been commissioned by the think-tank, Theos, which as well as finding out about voting intentions also looks at the question of religious beliefs and the coming general election. The headline voting intentions are broadly in line with the pattern that we see…
CON 39% (39) LAB 33% (32) LD 17%(18) The Tories remain stable as the Labour share grows? If it’s Saturday it must be poll night and I’m aware of two that we could see in tomorrow’s papers and possibly a third. First up is YouGov’s daily poll which initially is running in the Tuesday to Friday editions of the Sun and the Sunday Times stepping up to seven days a week when the election is declared. An hour or so…
CON 39% (39) LAB 32% (30) LD 18%(18) Here’s a poll to test the Andy Cooke analysis? The second YouGov daily tracker for the Sun is out and although the increase in the Labour share by 2 is well within the margin of error it does take us into what is clear hung parliament territory with the crude uniform national swing (UNS) seat calculators that simply apply a mathematical calculation in each seat to the 2005 result. This is going…
CON 40% (38) LAB 26% (25) LD 18% (20) But Labour gets its biggest AR share yet There’s a new PB/Angus Reid poll out this evening which shows both Labour and the Tories moving forward at the expense of the Lib Dems. The Labour share has continued the steady improvement from the 22% at the end of November. This evening’s 26% is the highest that the pollster has recorded since the PB/Angus Reid polling series began last October. Even though…
The Sun Get used to regular numbers every night Without much fanfare or advance warning the YouGov Daily Tracker for the Sun was launched overnight and shows a small deterioration in Labour’s position since the last published survey from the firm more than two and a half weeks ago. As can be seen the shares are CON 39%(+1): LAB 30%(-1): LD 18% (-1) – all within the margin of error but nothing to suggest that the much vaunted TV extravaganza…