(I’m on holiday in Dorset at the moment and this guest slot submitted by Flockers echoes quite a lot of comments that we are getting whenever YouGov polls are published – which is now five times a week. When I return next week I’m hoping that the firm’s Peter Kellner will take part in an online Q&A session – no doubt this will form part of the conversation. I should emphasise that these are the personal views of Flockers –…
CON 37% (40) LAB 32 % (32) LD 19% (16) MORI has the gap down to just 5 The first MORI poll for the Telegraph has more bad news for the Tories and will certainly add to the early election fervour. For the gap is down to just five points which on the conventional UNS calculators could mean Labour having most seats in a hung parliament. There’s no getting away from it – this is seriously bad news for Cameron…
CON 39% (38) LAB 33% (32) LD 16%(19) But how will it compare with tonight’s MORI poll? Tonight’s YouGov daily poll for the Sun maintains the consistency that we’ve seen for a week with Labour just six points behind the Tories. Both main parties move up one but there’s a big shift downwards for Nick Clegg’s party. At this level YouGov is suggesting that Labour have dropped just one in twelve of the voters who supported Blair’s party in 2005…
CON 39% LAB 30% LD 22% What does this say about the Labour recovery? Harris which used to be one of the big names in British polling hasn’t done much on the political front in recent years although it made an appearance with an eve of poll survey in May 2005 which was one of the closest. According to UKPR at the last election it had the Tories bang on at 33%, Labour overstated by 2 at 38% with the…
CON 38% (38) LAB 32% (32) LD 19%(17) Only the LDs show any change Here’s the latest YouGov daily poll for tomorrow’s Sun where the fieldwork ended at 5pm this evening. Again the numbers are very stable with the bullying/ “forces of hell” narrative seemingly having no impact on the LAB-CON position. The main interest from the pollster today has been in their latest dataset which apparently points to a big change in their party ID weightings. Instead of one…
CON 38% (39) LAB 32% (33) LD 17%(17) No change in the lead but “others” rise These numbers have come directly from Peter Kellner and show no change in the lead. The main difference on the past three polls is the increased share going to others – a trend that we saw with ICM. There will be disappointment in Tory ranks that margin is still at the same level and that bullygate appears to have had little impact apart from,…
Shouldn’t poll numbers be based on responses alone? It might come as a surprise to many that the headline figures from the three main past vote weighting phone pollsters, ICM/Populus/ComRes, are not based solely on how interviewees said they would vote. For before finalising their voting intention figures each of them makes an adjustment based on what they think the quite significant numbers of “refused”/”“won’t say” respondees would have done if they had stated an intention. This can cause the…
CON 41% (39) LAB 29% (33) LD 19%(17) Is Labour paying the price for “BullyGate”? So there we have it, the latest YouGov daily poll as reported by Conservativehome with comparisons on the YouGov daily poll that was published on Saturday night for the following day’s Sunday Times. The turnaround is really quite extraordinary especially as the YouGov gap then was seen in the same area only a few hours ago in the February ICM poll for the Guardian. So…