Ipsos-MORI Will voters act differently if they know? Just catching up with the latest MORI poll of the marginals which came out just as the Matt Lebo thread was starting. The survey took place in seats where Labour held leads of between 10% and 18% at the 2005 general election and the poll topline of C37-L41 represents a 5% swing to the Tories. With marginals’ polls you always have to look at the baseline from last time and work back…
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 24 Mar 23 CONSERVATIVES 36% 37% LABOUR 34% 33% LIB DEMS 17% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 2.5% 3.5% Tory daily poll lead drops to just 2 percent Tonight’s daily poll by YouGov for the Sun has Labour up to 34% and the Tories down to 36%. The gap equals the smallest that we’ve seen in this series and will add to the jitters in Tory ranks. It is important to stress…
Harris poll for The Metro Mar 22 Mar 15 CONSERVATIVES 35% 36% LABOUR 28% 28% LIB DEMS 17% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 5.5% There’s a new Harris poll in the Metro which has both the Tories and the Lib Dem down a point and Labour on a standstill. The big feature is the very high level, 20%, for others and is similar to the trend that we saw with the Optimum survey on Monday for the…
Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with Brown/Cameron/Clegg ..” Satisfied Dissatisfied +/- BROWN 34% (36) 60% (57) -5 CAMERON 42% (44) 42% (40) -4 CLEGG 45% (44) 25% (27) +8 Ipsos-MORI Mar 21 (Feb 22) And Cameron gets his worst ratings since 2008 I’ve now had advance sight of the Ipsos-MORI leader approval ratings for March – a form of questioning that has been asked in the same way by the firm for more than a third of a century. The numbers are…
Ipsos-MORI Does this mark a turning point? Whilst checking out the Ipsos-MORI website overnight I came across a fascinating paper on what the pollster describes as the “Presidentialisation’ of British politics? The chart is self-explanatory – the leader is becoming more important in the eyes of voters and we could reach a point at this election when it takes over as the main driver. The MORI paper goes on: “..In fact, past evidence has suggested that voters tend to underestimate…
A new poll tonight of London seats reports a big move back to the Tories compared with the last such poll just three weeks ago. The shares are: CON 40 (+1): LAB 31 (-4): LD 18 (+1). Compared with the 2005 general election in the capital this represents an 8% swing which puts it at Angus Reid levels. Mike Smithson
Will the big tactical move be from UKIP backers? All the talk about tactical voting seems to be about the Lib Dems with polling evidence starting to suggest that they split at least 3-2 in favour of a victory for Brown’s Labour. But are we wrong to confine our thinking about tactical voting to just Nick Clegg’s party. Is the biggest source of potential movers from “others” – notably GREEN/BNP/UKIP which between them have been getting in excess of 10…
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 22 Mar 19 CONSERVATIVES 36% 38% LABOUR 32% 31% LIB DEMS 20% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 5% More jitters for the blue team Tonight’s daily poll for the Sun, where the fieldwork finished at 5pm, reports a narrowing of the lead from 7% on Sunday to just 4% this evening. This is all getting very tight as we move into the final pre-campaign stage. For YouGov follows ICM and Optimum…