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Category: Polls

Will a strong Labour keep the coalition together?

Will a strong Labour keep the coalition together?

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What’s the impact of improved Labour poll shares? We have spent very little time looking at the voting intention polls (VI) since the May 6th general election. The next encounter seems to far off that it hardly seems worthwhile. Maybe this is a mistake. For a marked trend in the VI surveys that there’ve been following the election is that Labour has been polling quite a bit above its 29.7% general election share. The latest from ComRes overnight had with…

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The 2010: UNS, Proportional Swing and all that…

The 2010: UNS, Proportional Swing and all that…

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Dr Rob Ford (University of Manchester), Dr Will Jennings (University of Manchester), Dr Mark Pickup (Simon Fraser University) and Professor Christopher Wlezien (Temple University) reflect upon models and methods for projecting the vote at the 2010 British election. In this post we consider the performance of our projection model and the other models published in the run-up to the May 2010 UK Election, discuss the methodological issues involved, and consider some of the future directions for projection both in the…

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Did Lib Dem support just melt away on the day?

Did Lib Dem support just melt away on the day?

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Rank Pollster CON LAB LD Error 1 RNB India: Phone 37 (+0.1) 28 (-1.7) 26 (+2.4) 4.2 2= ICM phone/past vote weighted 36 (-0.9) 28 (-1.7) 26 (+2.4) 5 2= Ipsos-MORI: phone 36 (-0.9) 29 (-0.7) 27 (+3.4) 5 4 Populus: phone/past vote weighted 37 (+0.1) 28 (-1.7) 27 (+3.4) 5.2 5 Harris: Online 35 (-1.9) 29 (-0.7) 27 (+3.4) 6 6 ComRes: phone/past vote weighted 37 (+0.1) 28 (-1.7) 28 (+4.4) 6.2 7 Opinium: online 35 (-1.9) 27 (-2.7)…

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… and tonight’s ComRes

… and tonight’s ComRes

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No change from ComRes, but 38% may change mind before voting ComRes: ITV News/Independent May 3 May 2 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 29% 29% LIB DEMS 26% 26%   The press release from ITV News/The Independent says: “This poll gives the Conservatives 294 seats – 32 short of an overall majority – Labour 251 seats and Liberal Democrats 74. These voting intention figures are identical to figures from ComRes yesterday – the first time during the election campaign that figures…

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Tonight’s YouGov numbers

Tonight’s YouGov numbers

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YouGov – the Sun May 4 May 3 CONSERVATIVES 35% 35% LABOUR 30% 28% LIB DEMS 24% 28% Anthony Wells says: “Just when it was looking as though the position had settled down, we suddenly have a shift in support. It could be the “Cleggmania” bubble bursting, or people pulling away from a hung Parliament after the heavy Conservative campaigning against it, or Liberal Democrat supporters heeding the call of Labour figures to vote tactically for Labour…. or, it could…

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The Sunday night round-up

The Sunday night round-up

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This is a regular feature which will run every Sunday night up until polling day, to include the last set of figures from each pollster, as well as the current seat spreads from the betting markets, and also international updates. The pollsters Last poll from each pollster Con LD Lab Oth Lead YouGov 2 May 34 29 28 9 Con 5 ICM 2 May 33 28 28 11 Con 5 BPIX 1 May 34 30 27 9 Con 4 ComRes…

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Tonight’s YouGov numbers

Tonight’s YouGov numbers

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YouGov – the Sun May 2 May 1 CONSERVATIVES 34% 35% LIB DEMS 29% 28% LABOUR 28% 27% UPDATE – ICM ICM – Guardian May 2 Apr 30 CONSERVATIVES 33% 36% LIB DEMS 28% 27% LABOUR 28% 29% Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) www.electiongame.co.uk The UK election game is available here – entries close 7am BST Thursday

Could NOM become the favourite again?

Could NOM become the favourite again?

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The chart, from Bestbetting, shows the changing prices on the exchanges, expressed as an implied percentage, to developments over the past 24 hours. As can be seen the markets did what markets almost always do – they over-reacted. Now the gap between the Tory majority and a hung parliament has moved to the 53-47 range as we wait for more polling. I just wonder whether we’ll get a “bank holiday” poll with a very different picture. It happened at precisely…

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