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The media should have been more sceptical about the pre-LAB conference Tory-funded Populus poll?

The media should have been more sceptical about the pre-LAB conference Tory-funded Populus poll?

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Why did the Guardian & others give it coverage Last Saturday in what appeared to be a very aggressive move the Conservative party published the findings of a survey about Ed Miliband and Labour that it had commissioned from Populus. Unlike the firm’s standard voting intention surveys the poll was carried out online. Several papers including the Guardian and the Times gave it quite a bit of coverage and all added to the narrative about Ed Miliband. Populus, of course,…

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Ed Miliband’s speech will get him a closer in the “Best PM” ratings

Ed Miliband’s speech will get him a closer in the “Best PM” ratings

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Tweet The party looks set to get more behind him The one set of ratings that the Tories always throw at Ed Miliband are those below on who “would be best Prime Minister”. Here EdM has suffered because of the reluctance of many of those saying they’d vote Labour to get behind their man. My guess is that the main impact of this afternoon’s speech, in terms of the all important media narrative, will be that after two years the…

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ComRes: Lib Dems up 3 to 15: Labour lead down to 3: More poor leadership numbers for EdM

ComRes: Lib Dems up 3 to 15: Labour lead down to 3: More poor leadership numbers for EdM

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Has Miliband’s “Budget bonus” finally subsided? There’s a new telephone poll from ComRes for the Independent which has the Lib Dems moving up 3 to 15% at the expense of Labour which sees the smallest gap over the Tories since Osborne’s much-criticised March budget. On leader ratings there’s other bad news for Labour. Asked whether Mr Miliband has what it takes to be a good prime minister, 22% agree and 63% disagree. For Dave the figures are 39% and 52%…

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Concern about the EU slumps to 3 percent in the latest Ipsos-MORI issues index

Concern about the EU slumps to 3 percent in the latest Ipsos-MORI issues index

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Ipsos-MORI The latest Ipsos-MORI issues index is out and the main finding together with the trend on the the EU are in the chart above. Interestingly the economy is down quite sharply although overall it is by far the biggest concern. This unique polling which has been carried out by the firm for more than 35 years seeks to test the salience of specific issue areas by not prompting those who take part. Instead they are invited simply to name…

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Two and a half years in and Labour continues to lose the economy blame game

Two and a half years in and Labour continues to lose the economy blame game

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Tweet 46% say it’s responsible with just 29% blaming the coalition? Amongst the deluge of polling ahead of the Labour conference there’s one set of numbers that should really worry the Two Eds – when asked this week by Opinium for the Observer “Who would you say is most responsible for the current state of the UK economy?” 46% said the last Labour government with just 29% saying the coalition government. A total of 18% said none of these with…

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How the 47 percent gaffe is killing Romney: The betting and the polling

How the 47 percent gaffe is killing Romney: The betting and the polling

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Follow @MSmithsonPB Betfair Plus the latest RCP averages from the key swing states OHIO (2008: Obama +4.6, 2004: Bush +2.1) VIRGINIA (2008: Obama +6.3, 2004: Bush +8.2) FLORIDA (2008: Obama +2.8, 2004: Bush +5.0) In a new article on the excellent 538 blogNate Silver makes the following observation about the impact of the 47%. “After a secretly-recorded videotape was released on Sept. 17, showing Mitt Romney making unflattering comments about the “47 percent” of Americans whom he said had become dependent on…

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The Michael Ashcroft polling that should cheer the Lib Dems up

The Michael Ashcroft polling that should cheer the Lib Dems up

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ConHome Sept 26 2011 Although it’s a year old the findings are still valid This post has been put up following a promise I made at the Times/Populus Lib Dem conference fringe meeting yesterday. It relates to Michael Ashcroft polling from September 2011 which was carried out in Tory seats that were vulnerable to Labour and the Lib Dems. There’s has been nothing like it before or since and I’d contend that the general thrust is still valid. The Lib…

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The biggest polling weekend since general election sees outcomes ranging from a CON 4 pt lead to LAB 12 pts ahead

The biggest polling weekend since general election sees outcomes ranging from a CON 4 pt lead to LAB 12 pts ahead

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YouGov finds that the Tories would have a 4% lead if Boris was leader &Vince led the LDs.CON 39%/LAB 35%/LD 11% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2012 If Boris led Tories &Clegg and Miliband still in place YouGov find it would be CON 38%/LAB 38%/LD 9% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2012 If Boris led Tories &Clegg and Miliband still in place YouGov find it would be CON 38%/LAB 38%/LD 9% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2012…

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