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Category: Oldham E & Saddleworth

David Herdson says 2016 could be a good year for the GOP to pick a loser

David Herdson says 2016 could be a good year for the GOP to pick a loser

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The lessons of a Trump defeat would resonate for decades Only one person has set the race for next year’s GOP nomination alight and that person is Donald Trump. Behind his blaze of controversy, energy, self-publicity and populism lies a field strewn with the bewilderment of his rivals: how has he lasted so long? Why have his gaffes not brought him down? How can he be effectively taken on? As yet, they have no answers. That was painfully apparent in…

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What are the lessons from the OES call-back poll?

What are the lessons from the OES call-back poll?

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How did you actually vote in the by-election (Populus) CON 2010 % LAB 2010 % LD 2010 % Conservative 49 0 3 Labour 5 91 29 Lib Dem 33 5 55 UKIP 9 1 7 BNP 2 1 0 GREEN 1 2 4 OTHER 3 0 2 Is UKIP starting to benefit from the coalition? The Tory peer and benefactor, Michael Ashcroft, funded a call-back poll in Oldham E and Saddleworth and the key voter churn figures are featured in…

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It it wrong to assume that all Tory losses went to the LDs?

It it wrong to assume that all Tory losses went to the LDs?

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Populus cross party splits CON 2010 % LAB 2010 % LD 2010 % CON by-election 46 2 3 LAB by-election 12 89 31 LD by-election 34 3 55 Or was the party churn more complicated than that? In the aftermath of the OES result a widespread assumption has developed that all the Tory votes lost last night went to the Lib Dems. This looks a simple straightforward answer and apparently explains everything. But does it? For the Populus poll of…

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Do the slimmed-down Tories hold the key to tonight’s result?

Do the slimmed-down Tories hold the key to tonight’s result?

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How much weight should we give to Blue>Yellow switching? There are two factors in today’s election that could just possibly cause an upset:- Differential turnout in each of the main party support groups. Will the red team manage to get the same proportion of its known backers to the polling stations as Team Watkins? In the past Labour has tended to come out with lower shares than by election polls suggested. What will wavering Tory supporters do especially following the…

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Will being forced to stay positive have hurt Labour?

Will being forced to stay positive have hurt Labour?

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But hasn’t this taken the edge off their message? The events that led up to this by-election have put a series of constraints on the red team which is certainly showing itself in the final couple of days. For the one thing they’ve been unable to do is put out anything that could be portrayed as a smear against the LD’s Elwyn Watkins – the man who took the Woolas campaign to court leading to the ex-minister being disqualified. The…

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Do voters really care about who is most local?

Do voters really care about who is most local?

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Is Watkins trying to do to Labour what Woolas did to him? One of the elements of September’s election court ruling on Phil Woolas was over the then Labour candidate’s claim that the Lib Dem was not telling the truth over “being a local”. Now, in the final couple of days of the campaign the yellow standard-bearer is trying to make an issue over the veracity of his Labour opponent’s claim to “be local”. In a leaflet he picks up…

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Jonathan’s weekly slot: Tonight a rant about turnout

Jonathan’s weekly slot: Tonight a rant about turnout

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Ged Wilmot/Saddleworth News Facebook page What can be done to get more people voting? As the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election reaches fever pitch, I wanted to use my regular slot to rant about turnout. A truly fascinating subject, I am sure you agree! How many electors do we think will vote next week? Does it really matter if the turnout is low? And if it does, should we be doing anything about it? At the general election, turnout in…

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How much will the polls themselves influence how people vote?

How much will the polls themselves influence how people vote?

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Is this why by-election polling can be so challenging? When the three Old & Sad polls were coming out on Saturday evening an astute observer on UKPR wrote that we won’t really be able to compare these surveys against the actual result because the fact these three polls have been published could itself change people’s votes. That’s spot on and why all three parties were very jumpy as news of the numbers trickled out. The Labour strategy in the days…

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