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Category: Lib Dems

A frustrating morning for poll-watchers

A frustrating morning for poll-watchers

Where’s the YouGov and Populus polling information? This morning I had thought that there would be two stories competing for attention – the February survey by Populus for the Times and that much-trailed YouGov poll of members on the Lib Dem leadership. There’s no sign of the latter in the online versions of the papers and the Times report on the Populus survey focuses on attitudes to the Muslim cartoon row with no mention of the latest party shares. Maybe…

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Has Huhne now got Campbell in sight?

Has Huhne now got Campbell in sight?

Candidates poll shows the ex-MEP is getting closer A poll of 50 Lib Dem candidates for the More4 News on digital TV has Campbell with 22 backers, Hunhe with 17 and Hughes on just 7. As yet we have no further details of the survey except that those who took part in the survey were “candidates at the last General Election in marginal constituencies”. But this is not a survey of Lib Dem members and it is hard to to…

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Punters think it’s down to Campbell and Huhne

Punters think it’s down to Campbell and Huhne

YouGov could settle it within a few days There’ve been big moves in the Lib Dem leadership betting following the claims by Camp Campbell that Chris Huhne had reneged on a deal not to stand and a confident performance by the ex-MEP on Question Time last night. The latest prices have Campbell out from 0.5/1 to 0.72/1 with Huhne in from 3/1 to less than 2/1. The backers have been moving further away from Simon Hughes who has drifted to…

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Is Ming now a near certainty?

Is Ming now a near certainty?

Best price tightens to 0.49/1 There’s been a further swing to Menzies Campbell in the Lib Dem leadership betting overnight and the best you can now get is 0.49/1. With just a month until the result is known how good a bet is this? Do any of the other candidates stand a chance? The last full leadership poll of party members took place while Charles Kennedy was still leader and was published only a few hours before the resignation was…

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Why the 5% Lib Dem gap between ICM and YouGov?

Why the 5% Lib Dem gap between ICM and YouGov?

.. A tale of two polls and two polling methodologies A new poll by ICM for the Sunday Telegraph this morning should ease some of the jitters within the Lib Dems. After Friday’s YouGov survey putting their share down at 13% the ICM numbers out today are CON 37: LAB 36: LD 18. The only change on Tuesday’s Guardian ICM survey is a one point drop for the Lib Dems. The timing of the polls meant that all the interviewing…

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Even most Lib Dems don’t recognise these faces

Even most Lib Dems don’t recognise these faces

Few crumbs for party in ICM data feast The pollster, ICM, has now made available 41 pages of detailed data on its Lib Dem leadership poll that appeared in the Guardian on Wednesday. It will be recalled that the survey was unusual in that it was carried out online and part involved respondents watching video clips of the candidates. Even allowing for the fact that the sample was very small the results were shocking and showed the challenge the party…

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So is it down to two?

So is it down to two?

So what are we to make of the incident-packed Lib Dem leadership race now? Each day something new seems to be happening and keeping up with the betting has become a nightmare. After switching big funds into Hughes yesterday I became part of the exodus early this morning. In the aftermath of Mark Oaten I felt that the loser would be Hughes – only to have that view confounded by yesterday’s ICM poll. Now, as every bulletin focuses on this…

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ICM boost for Simon Hughes

ICM boost for Simon Hughes

UPDATED 0832 Party President now back as firm second favourite An unusual online poll in the Guardian this morning should make good reading for the Lib Dem party president, Simon Hughes, in his bid to become leader. The pollster, which usually carries out phone surveys, used the internet to interview 90 Tory voters, 90 Labour, 90 Lib Dems and 23 who supported other parties to ask about their views of the three leadership challengers. The group split Hughes 51: Campbell…

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