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Category: Lib Dems

Could the Lib Dem race still spring a surprise?

Could the Lib Dem race still spring a surprise?

Just two week to go before new leader is elected The chopping and changes in the betting chart above show the extraordinary fluctuations there’ve been in the Lib Dem leadership race from the day after Charles Kennedy announced his resignation just six weeks ago. The chart shows the implied probability of success based on the Betfair betting exchange market. In the first phase the money piled on Ming Campbell after a YouGov members poll on the morning of Kennedy’s resignation…

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Why can’t journalists understand polls?

Why can’t journalists understand polls?

Ignorant media boost Hughes in the betting Four Mondays ago Jackie Ashley wrote a sharp attack in her Guardian column on the influence of betting on politics in the UK and singling out this site in particular for the role it has. But one thing Ashley ought to consider is that those who want to bet successfully on political outcomes have to understand polls – a skill that appears to be sadly lacking amongst many of her colleagues. For those…

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The Dunfermline aftermath – the punter view

The Dunfermline aftermath – the punter view

A report on the reaction in the betting markets While his party’s spinners were trying to confine the loss of Dunfermline and West Fife as just being down to “local issues” the veteran Derbyshire MP, Dennis Skinner said it was “the biggest by-election upset he had ever witnessed.” The immediate betting reactions have been:- Gordon Brown less likely to be the next Labour leader. There’s been an easing in his price from 0.41/1 to 0.45/1. The view is that if…

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Was Blair’s leaflet attack an own goal?

Was Blair’s leaflet attack an own goal?

Did the Cameron “flip-flop” attack bring Iraq into the campaign? Just 19 hours before polls opened in the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election Tony Blair produced a leaflet at Prime Minister’s Questions to reinforce his attacks on David Cameron for flip-flopping. It had been delivered to the seat’s most famous resident, Gordon Brown, and Blair quoted comments from it on the Tory policy on Iraq. This completely undermined David Cameron and there was general agreement that the Prime Minister’s performance…

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How much can we rely on YouGov?

How much can we rely on YouGov?

Is Chris Huhne right to start dancing in the streets? After an extraordinary day on the Lib Dem leadership markets and the busiest forty-eight hours since PB.C started the big question is how much can we rely on YouGov – the internet pollster? After the firm’s final poll before the December announcement on David Cameron’s election I raised my doubts about the YouGov approach. What worried me was that the same group of people, in that case Tory members, was…

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My informant sticks by his YouGov information

My informant sticks by his YouGov information

The informant behind my article on the private YouGov survey on the Lib Dem leadership has come back to me. He says he has rechecked his source (who he trusts absolutely) and is convinced that the YouGov figures are genuine. It will be noted that the comment in Peter Kellner’s email was very specific – “that all the figures that you, and Guido Fawkes, attributed yesterday to our recent poll of Lib Dem members are wrong”. There seem to be…

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Could a good Dunfermline showing be Ming’s salvation?

Could a good Dunfermline showing be Ming’s salvation?

Populus poll boost for Lib Dems on eve of by-election With just a day to go before the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election the betting markets seem to think that the Lib Dems, in spite of all the recent troubles, look set to beat the SNP and hold onto their second place of last May. Using “advanced Lib Dem bar chart technology” and a guest appearance by Charles Kennedy the party seems to have had a good campaign. There was…

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YouGov poll leak: it’s very close

YouGov poll leak: it’s very close

“Ming just 6% ahead” Information has been leaked to me this afternoon about the YouGov Lib Dem members poll which has been the subject of much speculation. My informant tells me that the survey was commissioned by a wealthy backer of Ming Campbell who is also a big donor and he told me his name. I was given the figures of Campbell 40%: Huhne 34% and Hughes 24% on first preferences. My information is that while the Hughes second preferences…

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