Should the LDs now work with the 45% Tories to fight Brown? On the day of the best Tory poll figures for 15 years and only two days before the Lib Dems get their new leader there’s an audacious move by Cameron which could prove problematic for Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne. For in an initiative calculated to put the new leader on the spot immediately Cameron has offered to join forces with the third party to forge a “new…
The competition that moved the markets in 2006 So who will be the successor to Ming? With voting closing on Saturday, we’ll know the identity of the new leader by early next week – but how good are you at predicting the outcome? Simply predict who the new leader will be and their percentage share of the valid votes to up to two decimal places. Scoring: your score will be the difference between your prediction and the actual result for…
Could it be closer than YouGov was suggesting? Chris Huhne’s campaign team have released details of a survey by an independent third party organisation which, they say, suggests a late surge in support of their man. The data purports to show that there’s been a big reduction in the number of undecided voters has fallen dramatically over the past ten days (from 38.4% to 17.5%) and that these members have plumped overwhelmingly for the older contender. These are the figures:…
Does the odds-on favourite need to do more than look good? With only nine to to go before voting ends in the Lib Dem leadership there’s been a lot of questioning in the Lib Dem blogsphere over whether the odds-on and strong polling favourite, Nick Clegg is the right choice. He is also the candidate on whom I have bet £900. One factor that has sparked off the concern was his lacklustre performance on Tuesday’s Today Programme on Radio 4….
Why PBC is breaking the embargo A YouGov poll of 678 Lib Dem party members that will be released later this evening by Sky News has Nick Clegg beating Chris Huhne by 56% to 44% in the membership ballot. But the race could still be close because 52% of those questioned have not voted yet only 52% of those questioned had already voted and 24% said they were undecided. The pollster built up a good reputation for party membership polls…
Why is there confusion at the Guardian over the Lib Dem total? The main lead in the Guardian this morning is its new ICM poll which shows huge changes on the last survey from the pollster just under a fortnight ago. These are the shares with comparisons on that survey – CON 37% (-6): LAB 31% (-4): LD 21/23% (+6/8) The reason why I am quoting two figures for the Lib Dems is that the story in the Guardian says…
Sky News commissioning Huhne-Clegg poll Adam Boulton has emailed me to say that Sky News has commissioned a YouGov Poll of party members on the LibDem Leadership race. This will be carried out next week and they will have the results to make available ion the evening of Saturday 1st December. Given that by then a large proportion of members are likely to have voted then at least part of it will be akin to an exit poll. My guess…
Is Huhne really 20% ahead? In the absence of any proper polling of Lib Dem party members anybody wanting to have a punt on the leadership election has almost no hard evidence on which to make their choice. The Guardian, however, reports on a survey it carried out on Wednesday night amongst 200 members it questioned at a hustings meeting in Cambridge. The outcome was certainly encouraging for the former Guardian journalist and now party environment spokesman, Chris Huhne. This…