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Category: Lib Dems

Are these the figures that undermine the UNS?

Are these the figures that undermine the UNS?

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YouGov Just look at how Lib Dem supporters are splitting The forced choice question that appears above is one that’s been included in the Telegraph’s monthly YouGov poll for several years now and I think is probably a good guide to potential tactical voting. For this asks simply: “If you had to choose which would you prefer to see after the next election a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Gordon Brown?”. For me…

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Tories open up 18 point gap with ComRes

Tories open up 18 point gap with ComRes

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CON 42 (+4) LAB 24 (+1) LD 18 (-4) But was it more than just the “Norwich Effect”? This clearly is a very good poll for the Tories who are back in the 40s after five consecutive surveys from the pollster that had them below the magical 40 number including one where they had slumped to just 30%. The field-work started on Friday and went through to Sunday when the party, and particularly Cameron, was getting a lot of favourable…

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Will we ever see headlines like this again?

Will we ever see headlines like this again?

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What’s happened to the Lib Dem by-election machine? Another by-election has come and gone with another Labour loss and another gain for the Conservatives, only their second since losing power twelve years ago. That rarity says much about the Conservatives but it’s not as if governments haven’t lost by-elections in that time, it’s just that the Tories didn’t win them. The Lib Dems were the acknowledged masters of parliamentary by-elections. From the heady days of the Alliance onwards, a steady…

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Who’s winning the Dave-Gord numbers war?

Who’s winning the Dave-Gord numbers war?

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BBC Online Will voters get bored by the details? Yet again today’s PMQ was dominated by the Tory leader trying to get the PM to admit that his answers a week ago and other public statements on cuts were not accurate. He was, in fact, being called a liar. The Tory strategy seems to be two-fold – to portray Brown as untrustworthy through his use of “dodgy” numbers and to get over that Labour is having to make cuts as…

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How tricky is the Iraq inquiry for Brown/Blair?

How tricky is the Iraq inquiry for Brown/Blair?

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Could a pre-election public grilling hurt Labour? The main lead in the Guardian this morning is the news that both Blair and Brown are likely to face public questioning about their Iraq war role by the Chilcot inquiry. Last week Brown announced that this would be in secret but after a wave a protests that has been changed. As the paper puts it “..the move to open up his hearings, which came on the eve of a Commons debate tomorrow…

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So what’s the answer to the Mail’s question?

So what’s the answer to the Mail’s question?

Is Gord ready to “kill Martin off”? Of all the front pages this morning the one that gets to the heart of the matter is the Daily Mail – is the Prime Minister ready to make the parliamentary time available fot the confidence motion on his fellow Scot, Michael Martin to be debated? If he doesn’t Brown will face a mighty storm and possibly lasting and terminal damage to what remains of his political career. If he does then it…

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Could Labour be heading for 3rd place in the Euros?

Could Labour be heading for 3rd place in the Euros?

The Sun Is it time to re-think June 4th betting? After arguing yesterday that UKIP that UKIP were unlikely to perform as well on June 4th as they did in 2004 I’m afraid I’m going to have to eat my words. For while we were all putting the focus on YouGov’s 22% share for Labour in a general election we over-looked the figures from an EU election voting intention question as well. There is a discrepancy between the body copy…

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Is Burnley the key to the expenses betting stategy?

Is Burnley the key to the expenses betting stategy?

After the revelations could the LDs unseat Kitty Ussher? Burnley in north-east Lancashire is where my family comes from and, indeed, my grandfather was Labour mayor of the neighbouring town of Nelson in the mid-1930s. The very idea that it could be anything other than rock-solid Labour seems extraordinary. Yet I now think there’s a chance that the Lib Dems could take it – and if Burnley went this way what will it say about other places? There are three…

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