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Category: Lib Dems

What’ll Lib Dems do in the LAB-CON marginals?

What’ll Lib Dems do in the LAB-CON marginals?

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Ipsos-MORI In how many seats could tactical voting be decisive? The above data from last week’s marginals poll from the MORI poll of the marginals shows that an incredible 77% of LD supporters might switch by polling day in seats where Labour and the Tories are battling it out. Clearly the more this is framed as a battle between Brown and Cameron the more that this segment will become important. The critical questions are how many will switch and which…

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Will this Labour effort persuade Lib Dems to switch?

Will this Labour effort persuade Lib Dems to switch?

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Will rubbishing Clegg encourage tactical voting? Being identified on both the Labour and Tory central databases as a Lib Dem in a highly marginal seat I’m getting a lot of attention from both big parties – this latest, an expensive postcard, came in the mail this morning. Squeezing known LDs is clearly a key strategy but I just wonder whether this approach is right. To me it shows simplistic thinking which might look smart at Labour HQ but is not…

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Has Clegg put Cameron on pole position?

Has Clegg put Cameron on pole position?

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What should we make of his “mandate” comment? It’s unusual for the Lib Dems to get drawn into discussions about possible election results and what they’d do in a hung parliament. There are no easy answers and all scenarios tend to lead the discussion towards Labour and the Conservatives rather than the Lib Dems. So Clegg’s comments yesterday on GMTV form a very interesting position. He said:If a party has got more support and has got a clearer mandate from…

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Did Nick Clegg get his first “debate dividend”?

Did Nick Clegg get his first “debate dividend”?

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What’ll be the consequences in the marginals? Did I miss the glaringly obvious when I wrote that I did not know what had caused the 3% boost for the Lib Dems in the overnight YouGov daily poll for the Sun? For the reason was plain to see as Mike L commented on the previous thread: “Last night’s news was dominated by the announcement of the Leader Debates – Clegg was side by side on split screen with Brown and Cameron…

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Imagine…

Imagine…

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Morus wonders what would happen if… Imagine that the polls narrow just a little more over the course of a blood-spattered, mud-flinging General Election campaign of only 17 working days that leaves no time for clarity and perspective. Imagine that quirks of turnout and minor party support combine with a decent Lib Dem showing to befuddle the best laid plans of Mice and Men. Imagine that the Conservatives, in spite of winning the largest percentage of the vote, are not…

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Will the new Lib Dem Blue save a few seats?

Will the new Lib Dem Blue save a few seats?

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Is this a case of political cross-dressing? Thanks to those on the previous thread who pointed this out but the Lib Dems have got themselves a new livery for the general election – and there’s a heavy tinge of blue about it. Given that their main election challenge will be in trying to hold on to many of their seats in the face strong challenges from the Tories it’s hard to conclude that this is not deliberate. For incumbent Lib…

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How many of these will be blue when the results come in?

How many of these will be blue when the results come in?

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York Outer – 0.44% (Lab 27%) Romsey & Southampton N: 0.46% (Lab 10.9%) Cheltenham: 0.66% (Lab 11.8%) Eastleigh: 1.12% (Lab 21.1%) Westmorland & Lonsdale: 1.7% (Lab 7.8%) Hereford & N Herefordshire: 2.4% (Lab 10.2%) Carshalton & Wallington: 2.93% (Lab 17.3%) Taunton Deane: 3.3% (Lab 12.1%) Chippenham: 4.7% (Lab 16.8%) Leeds NW: 5% (Lab 31.9%) Torbay: 6% (Lab 14.5%) Sutton & Cheam: 6.2% (Lab 11.8%) Camborne & Redruth: 7.1% (Lab 25.6%) Richmond Park: 7.1% (Lab 9.25%%) Cheadle: 7.4% (Lab 9.9%) Portsmouth…

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Tory ICM lead moves up to 11

Tory ICM lead moves up to 11

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CON 40 % (40) LAB 29 % (30) LD 21 %(18) And Clegg’s Lib Dems go up 3 to 21 The Guardian’s ICM poll for January is just out and has the Tories constant with Labour down a point and the Lib Dems up three. The changes are against the last published survey from the pollster just over a week ago and come after a period of sustained pressure from Labour on the Tory marriage plans. On that specific issue…

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