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Category: Lib Dems

Lib Dems drop to 11 in first phone poll of the month

Lib Dems drop to 11 in first phone poll of the month

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Poll/Publication Date CON % LAB % LD % Ipsos-MORI/ 12/12/10 38 39 11 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 14/11/10 36 39 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 17/10/10 39 36 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 12/09/10 37 37 15 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 And EdM takes a hit in his approval ratings We’ve have to wait a long time for it but the first non-YouGov poll of the month, from Ipsos-MORI, is just out and has the Lib Dems down to 11% – a share…

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Now all pollsters are showing a Labour lead

Now all pollsters are showing a Labour lead

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Latest PAPA Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % GE accuracy ranking ICM/Guardian 21/11/10 36 38 14 2= Populus/Times 24/10/10       2= Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 14/11/10 36 39 14 2= ComRes/Independent 29/11/10 36 40 12 5= YouGov/Sun 11/12/10 40 42 9 8 Angus Reid/Politicalbetting 29/11/10 35 40 13 9= ***PAPA*** LATEST 36.6 39.8 12.4 – And the LDs back to single figures with YouGov For nearly a fortnight the YouGov daily poll has had the Tories equal or ahead…

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How will the riots change the debate?

How will the riots change the debate?

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What’s the political impact of the troubles on the streets? A main reason the Lib Dems were keen to get the fees vote over and done with as soon as possible was that they can put it behind them as the narrative moves on which, thanks to the riots, it certainly is doing. The split on the issue has happened but the party’s government ministers stuck with the policy and the overall number of yellow MPs voting for it was…

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How many more will be joining Lib Dem president Tim?

How many more will be joining Lib Dem president Tim?

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What’ll be the scale of the yellow NO vote? This is Tim Farron, the newly elected president of the Lib Dems and the 5/1 favourite with Ladbrokes to be Nick Clegg’s successor as party leader. Whether he succeeds with that ambition might be determined in the next 30 or so hours as the machinations continue ahead of the big vote on student fees. Farron is voting against “because I made the pledge” but has been trying to sound supportive to…

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How would you vote if you were a LD MP?

How would you vote if you were a LD MP?

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Is abstention the option for wusses? Just four days to go before the big commons vote on fees and what could potentially be a career-ending decision for each of the 57 MPs who were elected for the Lib Dems last May. What would you do in their position – there are just three options: You vote for the tripling of the maximum fee and risk being accused of breaking your promises and alienating a significant part of your electorate who…

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What if 458 Tory voters in these seats had acted differently?

What if 458 Tory voters in these seats had acted differently?

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General Election May 6 2010 CON>LAB/LD switchers required Warwickshire North 28 Camborne & Redruth (LD) 34 Thurrock 47 Hendon 54 Oxford West & Abingdon 89 Cardiff North 98 Sherwood 108 Total switchers needed ***458*** Would Labour have hung onto power? As we all are no doubt aware the May 2010 general election finished up with party seat totals that meant that only a combination of the 307 Conservative MPs with the 57 Lib Dem ones could produce a majority government….

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The Patrick Perspective: “If the LDs sink then Dave is out”

The Patrick Perspective: “If the LDs sink then Dave is out”

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A guest slot on the future of the coalition The above chart shows the actual poll shares achieved at the general elections from 1979 onwards. The 2015 numbers are the current PAPA numbers (Mike’s polling average). It also shows the GE turnout % (green line) and the combined share of Labour plus the LibDems (dotted line). What does it tell us? Firstly, it shows that there is quite some truth in the notion that Labour and the LibDems have historically…

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Are we now seeing the phenomenon of the “shy yellows”?

Are we now seeing the phenomenon of the “shy yellows”?

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Poll/publication End date CON (%) LAB (%) LD (%) ICM/Guardian 21/11/10 36 38 14 ICM/Guardian 24/10/10 39 36 16 ICM/NOTW 22/10/10 40 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 07/10/10 38 34 18 ICM/Guardian 29/09/10 35 37 18 ICM/Guardian 15/08/10 37 37 18 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 ICM/Guardian 20/06/10 39 31 21 ICM/Guardian 23/05/10 39 32 21 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 13/05/10 38 33 21 Labour take a two point lead with ICM Tonight’s Guardian ICM poll has…

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