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Category: Lib Dems

Big question in blue-yellow battles is how much you can trust the Ashcroft 2 stage seat specific questioning

Big question in blue-yellow battles is how much you can trust the Ashcroft 2 stage seat specific questioning

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Illuminating observations from the inventor – UKPR’s Anthony Wells There’s a big debate going on over the Lord Ashcroft style two stage questioning in his single constituency polls of which there have been more than 150. It will be recalled that after asking the standard voting question he puts a second one suggesting that those sampled focus on their own seat and the candidates who might stand. The numbers that are highlighted are the responses to the latter not the…

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Is Lord Ashcroft the reason Nick Clegg is still leading the Lib Dems?

Is Lord Ashcroft the reason Nick Clegg is still leading the Lib Dems?

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Is @LordAshcroft the reason why Nick Clegg is still Lib Dem Leader? http://t.co/Ap8I4FAF2x pic.twitter.com/jw6panqrOX — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) January 29, 2015 If so, who will be more grateful? The Lib Dems or their opponents? One of most striking things of this parliament, is the Lib Dems’ unshakeable calm whilst the national opinion polls suggest in May the Lib Dems are headed for an epochal defeat that may end up being a modern Charge of the Light Brigade. We regularly get…

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BES study shows that voters in LD seats have far more trust in their MPs than those in LAB or CON constituencies

BES study shows that voters in LD seats have far more trust in their MPs than those in LAB or CON constituencies

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A bit of Xmas cheer for the LDs Earlier in the month a big divide appeared between the huge joint university initiative, the British Election Study, and Lord Ashcroft’s polling of individual CON facing LD held seats. The former pointed to disaster while aggregate data from latter’s latest batch found that the yellows were 9% ahead. The reason, of course, is that you get very different responses in these seats when you ask voters, as Lord A does, to think…

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Is Clegg set to announce his departure today?

Is Clegg set to announce his departure today?

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Some interesting movements over at the bookies   @MSmithsonPB Still 5/1 with Ladbrokes, if anyone's interested. — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) October 8, 2014 Clegg NOT to lead LibDems into GE2015 price slashed from 13/2 to 2/1 after flood of bets overnight http://t.co/oSACEkpCfV — Paddy Power Politics (@pppolitics) October 8, 2014 Rumour mill continues to point to Nick Clegg announcing his departure today. Bet available at 5/6 here: http://t.co/ek1hEO3PHu — Paddy Power Politics (@pppolitics) October 8, 2014 It is worth checking…

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Clegg’s big day

Clegg’s big day

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So what will be the big surprise(s) from Clegg’s speech. Clegg's big day, what can we expect? http://t.co/rkg0RfVb3n pic.twitter.com/neID2svtnJ — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 8, 2014 I expect the issue that damaged the Lib Dems from the start, tuition fees will get an airing, as that probably helped defined the Lib Dems in government, but as he apologised in the past with no benefit, it might be a mistake to bring it up again as it might remind a certain…

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Voters think Lib Dems will fade away within ten years but UKIP is here to stay

Voters think Lib Dems will fade away within ten years but UKIP is here to stay

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In the last few weeks, YouGov polled the following question about the Lib Dems and UKIP “Which of the following comes closer to your opinion about the future for the Lib Dems/UKIP”   As we can see the voters think going forward that UKIP will be more relevant than the Lib Dems. I suspect the current Westminster VI polling is driving this, as the Lord Ashcroft marginal polls showed, the Lib Dems are doing better than national polling suggests, more…

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Norman Lamb says a coalition with Ed would ‘enormously damaging’ for the Liberal Democrats

Norman Lamb says a coalition with Ed would ‘enormously damaging’ for the Liberal Democrats

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  Yesterday Norman Lamb, the Lib Dem MP said The Liberal Democrats must not go into coalition with Labour even if they win more seats after the general election because the association with Ed Miliband would be so “damaging” for the party, a minister has warned. Norman Lamb, the Lib Dem care minister, said his party would be come under sustained attack if they make a coalition deal with Labour if the party get a small majority at the next…

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CON hopes are based on the LDs flourishing in LAB-CON marginals but not in CON-LD ones. The opposite is the case.

CON hopes are based on the LDs flourishing in LAB-CON marginals but not in CON-LD ones. The opposite is the case.

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GE2015 will see the return of big time tactical voting Because so much has been going on politically in the past few days very little attention has been paid to the latest round of marginals polling that was published by Lord Ashcroft last Sunday afternoon. The focus was on Lib Dem seats and the chart above is based on Lord A”s aggregate data from 17 separate polls. We’ve talked so often before about the collapse of the Lib Dem vote…

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