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Category: Labour

The money goes on an earlier Brown exit

The money goes on an earlier Brown exit

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Sunday Express The Brown “days as PM” index moves back ten days With Gordon Brown having survived Labour’s June election disasters, Norwich North and the conference season the level of activity on the “when will he go” markets has been relatively light. The view was growing that he would lead Labour into the battle against Cameron’s conservatives. That’s changed in the past 24 hours following the Number 10 statement about his eye problems. Could this, after all, be the pretext…

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The Tory ICM lead moves to 19 points

The Tory ICM lead moves to 19 points

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CON 45 (+5) LAB 26 (nc) LD 18 (-5) At last a survey where certainty to vote is key! We have been so overwhelmed by YouGov and YouGov-related surveys (PoliticHome and BPIX) that it comes as something of as relief to get some numbers from one of the leading phone pollsters with a track record going back decades. A key element with ICM is weighting by certainty to vote – something which YouGov doesn’t do and which I believe is…

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Some polling data for top politics don Anthony King

Some polling data for top politics don Anthony King

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How do these numbers fit with your article Professor? My apologies for returning to this subject but I feel I ought to raise yet again the issue of Blair’s 1996/97 polls ratings which are referred to in a commentary on the Mail BPIX poll by Anthony King, professor of government at Essex University. writes:- “…However, the findings still indicate that the road ahead for the Tories may be rocky. Not only is the Conservatives’ lead over Labour not nearly as…

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Is “fighting big government” going to resonate?

Is “fighting big government” going to resonate?

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Or has Cameron provided the ammunition for Labour? The critical element about party leaders’ big conference speeches ahead of general elections is that they define the big message that will be put to the voters and the core proposition on which they will be asking the public to vote for them. Several of the papers this morning pick out the Cameron approach to big government and the state as their view of the over-arching theme and, indeed, the way they…

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Is a Labour victory a near certainty?

Is a Labour victory a near certainty?

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Wikipedia Are there any chances of an upset? At last we have it – the date for the Glasgow NE by election to fill the vacancy created when former speaker, Michael Martin, stepped down as an MP in June. It’ll take place on November 12th which is just over a year after Labour’s stunning victory in Glenrothes when extraordinarily the total of votes cast for the party exceeded that at the general election. Clearly all the parties, particularly Labour, have…

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Is Pickles trying to hijack the Lib Dems “fair votes” rhetoric?

Is Pickles trying to hijack the Lib Dems “fair votes” rhetoric?

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Will this muddy the waters in the electoral reform debate? It’s surprising that with electoral reform being pushed up the election agenda by Labour, the comments by Tory chairman, Eric Pickles, in his conference speech don’t seemed to have attracted much attention. For under the banner of the Lib Dem “fair votes” rhetoric Pickles is pressing for the Tory version of electors reform which involves cutting the numbers of seats and having fresh boundary reviews after each general election. Acknowledging…

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What a difference a day makes?

What a difference a day makes?

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CON 40% (+3) LAB 26% (-4) LD 20%(-1) Labour’s YouGov tracker deficit doubles After the euphoria amongst Labour supporters last night and some corresponding gloom from Tories today’s YouGov daily tracker moves the party shares back to the sort of territory that we’ve come to expect in recent months – Labour in the mid-20s and the Tories in the low 40s. Most of the online questionnaires would have been filled in last night after a day that was dominated by…

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Was the Sun just following its readers?

Was the Sun just following its readers?

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Is this a taste of the next eight months? Today’s Sun gives a firmer indication of what the paper’s change of allegiance will mean in terms how the paper intends to carry on its political coverage in the run-up to the general election. Just look at the way it covers Harriet Harman’s attack on the paper. If this is a taster then we are in for an interesting time. Quite what the electoral impact will be is hard to measure…

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