Twitter Will this ease the jitters at Cameron Towers? Barely 13 hours after the Telegraph’s YouGov poll (HAT-TIP Sam) showing the Tories lead down to just 7% there’s a new survey just out for tomorrow’s People. The figures are:- CON 40% (38) LAB 31% (31) LD 18%(19) So for the third YouGov poll in a row the Labour shares stays on 31% while the Tories recoup the two points that were lost in the overnight survey. There’s not a lot…
What will the recession end do to the campaign? Unless everybody has got this wildly wrong official figures out this morning will show that Britain’s economy grew in the final quarter of 2009, thus marking the end of the recession that has been going on for eighteen months. It’s a massive day for Labour and its leader Mr. Brown who believe that this will underline their argument that their approach to dealing with the economic crisis has been right and…
CON 40 % (40) LAB 29 % (30) LD 21 %(18) And Clegg’s Lib Dems go up 3 to 21 The Guardian’s ICM poll for January is just out and has the Tories constant with Labour down a point and the Lib Dems up three. The changes are against the last published survey from the pollster just over a week ago and come after a period of sustained pressure from Labour on the Tory marriage plans. On that specific issue…
Why’s the poster campaign focussed on vulnerable ministers? Before the weekend I suggested that the location of the outdoor poster sites that had been booked for the Tory NHS campaign might provide an indication of party strategy on how marginals were regarded. After all there is no point in spending good money in existing Tory or Labour strongholds – seats which are not going to change hands and will not affect the actual outcome. This prompted somebody to give me…
Has it now got to be May 6th? I was very much taken by this post from antifrank:- “The Chilcott Inquiry is proving to be bigger than I thought it was going to be. I think Gordon Brown was very ill-advised to ask to be quizzed before the general election; pretty much whatever he says will dominate the news that week, and I cannot conceive how it could ever be good for Labour. That’s another week taken out of any…
Final Polls 1987/92/97/01/05: Polls overstating Labour: 29 Polls getting it right: 1 Polls understating Labour: 1 Have we still got to factor in Labour over-statement? There was a constant reminder from many of the speakers at this week’s conference on general election polling that in only one of the 31 final polls in the five general elections since 1987 has Labour been understated. The exception was ICM in 1997 when even with this it still ended up as top pollster….
Question Time BBC1 – Click to watch Was Hain’s discomfiture a taste of what’s to come? Anybody who followed the previous thread will have got a taste of the passions and anger that were aroused by the discussion on Labour and Iraq on last night’s BBC Question Time programme. It takes up the first twenty minutes and is well worth watching. Already it has prompted that arch-Blair defender, the Indy’s John Rentoul, to blog with his misgiving about how the…
How will 1997 tactics go down in 2010? One of the simple but effective campaign tools that Labour has used in its last three elections has been the pledge card – and given the results in 1997, 2001, and 2005 who can blame them for looking at the idea again. When it first appeared it was symbolic of the new professional communication approach that Tony Blair’s New Labour seemed to embody. It comes over as positive politics and puts the…