So passes Jeremy Corbyn. He hands over to his successor a party in the doldrums, with just 202 MPs, most representing seats in the largest metropolitan areas. If Labour are to win an overall majority of one at the next election, they will need 124 extra MPs. That would require a uniform national swing of over 10%. Such swings are exceptionally rare. The last time it happened was in 1997. So Labour better hope that Sir Keir is a new…
As we approach the end of the Corbyn era I thought it would be look at what winning the argument actually looks like. This is not meant as an attack on Corbyn or Labour per se because winning a working majority is bloody hard. Prior to Boris Johnson’s victory last December in the last 49 years no Tory had won a working majority other than Margaret Thatcher. It shows the difficulty of Corbyn’s successor, whoever that may be, winning a…
What of Labour? This is a question that almost no one is thinking about as, almost unnoticed, Jeremy Corbyn slips out of the limelight. Like the Magnificent Ambersons, Labour have got their comeuppance. They’d got it three times filled and running over. But those who had longed for it were not there to see it. And they never knew it, those who were still living had forgotten all about it, and all about them. That irrelevance bodes ill for Labour. …
This market from Ladbrokes about who will succeed John McDonnell as Shadow Chancellor is an intriguing market. I’m working on the assumption that Sir Keir Starmer wins the Labour leadership quite comfortably which gives him plenty of latitude in who to choose. I’m ruling out anyone who is in the Deputy Leader race as I think they’ll end up focussing on that role exclusively. I’m ruling out Rebecca Long Bailey because I have a hunch that Starmer wants to move…
A well-timed aberration is still an aberration Keir Starmer looks well set to win Labour’s leadership election in April. After securing comfortable leads among MPs, CLPs and affiliate organisations in the previous rounds, YouGov reported this week that he holds a 22% lead over Rebecca Long-Bailey, and is more likely than not to win on the first round. If he does, it will be in no small part down to the last set of rule changes which at the time…
Ladbrokes have this market on the correct finishing order in the Labour leadership market after the final round. The tweets by Matt Singh indicate that Rebecca Long Bailey is going to finish last but I’m always dubious when people talk about private polls and do not publish the polling tables. At 2/1, Starmer first, Nandy second, and Long Bailey third, it’s not exactly stellar odds when you remember the last public poll had Long Bailey in second place 25% ahead…
We have not had a poll of LAB members since last July so the YouGov chart above is based on the latest data available. Since then, of course, three of those senior party figures tested by the firm are no longer possible runners. Tom Watson has quit being an MP, Laura Pidcock lost her seat at on December 12th while John McDonnell has made his intentions clear. Note that in the polling each potential leader was tested separately but it…
Proverbial wisdom tells us that success has many fathers, while failure is an orphan. It’s a saying that appears to have by-passed the Labour party at least, since their general response to the election has been to hurl fistfuls of paternity tests at each other in a way that would send Jeremy Kyle off for a cold shower and a lie down. It’s been an analytically productive grand bun fight at least. While the pollsters are still nursing their hangovers,…