Markets look set to move further to Labour Further evidence of improving Labour fortunes comes in today’s ICM poll in the Guardian which has:- LAB 38: CON 30: LD 22: UKIP 2 The story is online. The margin is one per cent less than an ICM poll last month which had Labour on 39% to the Tories on 30%. The Guardian in its myopic style never seems to recognise polls which it did not commission, even from ICM, and tells…
Can Blair take a lead from George Bush? No doubt re-assured by George Bush’s re-election in the US Tony Blair was reported in the Independent at the weekend to have decided to face the Iraq issue head on in the coming campaign. Tony Blair has decided to confront opponents of the Iraq war head on by placing the “war on terror” at the heart of Labour’s campaign in the coming general election. The Prime Minister has privately admitted that attempts…
Will Bush try to capitalise on Britain’s move? Tony Blair must be praying that George Bush does not seek to make political capital out of the planned British troop move to support US forces in the north of Iraq. The idea that British lives might be at risk to help get Bush re-elected could damage the Prime Minister and Labour enormously. A sign of the level of unease was seen in the frosty response that Labour MPs gave to the…
Forget the bookie – you are better off with the building society? Even though Tony Blair has made it clear that he will only step down after he’s served another full term there’s a healthy market on who will replace him. Acording to this time-table it will be 2008 or 2009 before the Blairs move from Downing Sttreet to their new house in Connaught Square but the price of Gordon Brown being the successor is a staggering 1/3. That’s with…
bbc Is Tony Blair in danger of going the way of Neil Hamilton? With all the focus on the White House Race we have yet to catch up with with the plan by Martin Bell or another prominent TV journalist to run against Tony Blair in his Sedgefield constituency. The idea would be to repeat what Bell did in Tatton in 1997 where the Lib Dems and Labour pulled out to give him a clear run against Neil Hamilton. If…
Would a proper apology take the wind out of Charles Kennedy’s sails? Given that Tony Blair is the master of stealing the policies of his opponents how is he going to deal with the Lib Dem threat? Just what announcement can we expect in the run up to the Election that will do for Charles Kennedy’s party what the EU referendum announcement did for the Tories? An intriguing thought is that he could, with his usual impeccable timing and with…
A new bet for Blair-Brown watchers A well-thought and promising new market has just been launched by William Hill on when Blair will go. The prices are attractive:- Before end 2005 – 3/1 2006 11/8 2007 10/3 2008 5/1 2009 9/1 2010 & beyond 16/1 Unlike some recent William Hill markets that seemed more designed to attract publicity rather than bets this is being made available online right from the start. This is a good sign because it does look…
The tactical vote unwind – Labour style With the Lib Dems stating that “replacing the Tory party as the opposition” is their current objective a remarkable piece of Labour campaigning has been reported by a correspondent on the site. Villan sent us this message: “I live in a Tory-held Con/LibDem marginal. I was interested to get a Labour leaflet through the door the other day urging the “estimated 20-40% of Labour supporters who voted tactically for the LibDems in 2001″…