Browsed by
Category: Labour

Was Blair’s leaflet attack an own goal?

Was Blair’s leaflet attack an own goal?

Did the Cameron “flip-flop” attack bring Iraq into the campaign? Just 19 hours before polls opened in the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election Tony Blair produced a leaflet at Prime Minister’s Questions to reinforce his attacks on David Cameron for flip-flopping. It had been delivered to the seat’s most famous resident, Gordon Brown, and Blair quoted comments from it on the Tory policy on Iraq. This completely undermined David Cameron and there was general agreement that the Prime Minister’s performance…

Read More Read More

What’s behind the “Blair going in mid 2007” stories

What’s behind the “Blair going in mid 2007” stories

Punters pile on mid-2007 exit following Telegraph report The never ending saga on the biggest question in UK politics took another turn over the weekend with reports from Patrick Hennessy, Political Editor of the Sunday Telegraph, that Tony plans to hand over to Gordon in “next summer”. In his piece Hennessy writes: “..Mr Blair faces many pitfalls between now and then, however, notably over the battle to get his controversial package of school reforms into law in the face of…

Read More Read More

How long before the David & Gordon show?

How long before the David & Gordon show?

Brown’s price tightens after “hatred bill” defeats Whenever Tony Blair seems to be having a bad time of it punters flock to bet on Gordon Brown as his successor. For the main consideration in this market is not whether the Chancellor will make it to Number 10 but how quickly it will happen. Punters like to bet on something knowing it’s going to be resolved within a reasonable time-scale because the last thing they want is to lock their stake…

Read More Read More

Can Blair keep it going for another two years?

Can Blair keep it going for another two years?

Does Blunkett really know what’s going on? The comments by the twice sacked ex-cabinet minister, David Blunkett, that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have reached “a new understanding” that will see a changeover at Number 10 within two years have set the Blair departure markets going. In a BBC interview Blunkett said; “My sense is that there is a new understanding – yes..And it is good because anybody with any ounce of understanding of politics knows that when Tony Blair…

Read More Read More

The ICM poll numbers they didn’t tell us about

The ICM poll numbers they didn’t tell us about

Brown gains ground on Cameron For the first time since David Cameron was elected leader of the Conservatives Gordon Brown has achieved higher ratings in a poll than Tony Blair when set against the new Tory leader. This is a move that has gone on almost completely unnoticed apart from in Anthony Wells’s Polling Report. In figures that were not published at the weekend ICM had this split with Brown as leader compared with the main party selection: CON 38…

Read More Read More

Could Gordon go the way of David and Charles?

Could Gordon go the way of David and Charles?

Brown “next leader price” continues to ease Until the start of October it looked almost certain that the party leader line-up for the next General Election would be David Davis, Charles Kennedy and Gordon Brown. There was no specific betting market on this notion but Davis was a heavy odds-on favourite to take over from Michael Howard, Kennedy had seen off the doubters after a rather troubled party conference and the best price you could have got on Gordon Brown…

Read More Read More

The 2006 Political Year – the starting prices

The 2006 Political Year – the starting prices

A round-up of the main markets General Election – most seats. Normal bookmakers – LAB 4/7: CON 11/8. Betting exchanges – LAB 0.87/1: CON 1.16/1. IG Binary spread market. LAB 52-58: CON 42-48. Labour has eased considerably since the emergence of David Cameron and Tony Blair’s first ever Commons defeat. On October 10th, we suggested in anticipation of the “Cameron media love-in, that people should sell Labour the exchange price stood at 0.57/1. General Election – Commons seat spreads. Cantor…

Read More Read More

The Telegraph should believe its own pollster

The Telegraph should believe its own pollster

Gordon Brown is no longer the “grass is greener” alternative In its main editorial at the end of 2005 the Daily Telegraph speculates this morning about the possibility that next year could be a General Election year. It argues: “..Suppose that, at some stage in the coming 12 months, Tony Blair were to decide that he had had enough of the pettiness and contumely of domestic politics. Imagine that he were to seek a grander stage…that his place were to…

Read More Read More