Browsed by
Category: Labour leadership

The Labour leadership result thread

The Labour leadership result thread

Comments 0 Comment

Has Ed snatched it or did David hold on? What looks like being the closest Labour leadership contest since voting was opened up to the membership finally draws to a close in Manchester this afternoon, with the result expected to be announced around 4.40pm. Until the very final days of the more than four months of campaigning, David Miliband’s position as favourite went more-or-less unchallenged, with his odds at times implying a better than 80% chance of winning. That all…

Read More Read More

What a day on the markets

What a day on the markets

Comments 0 Comment

  Is the change down to more than my post? When I posted my call on the election at 3am this morning I sort of expected that there could be some movement on the Labour leadership markets but nothing on the scale of what has happened. The prices seem an almost exact mirror image of what they were last night but with a different Miliband in the favourite slot. The question I’m trying to answer is whether the prices are…

Read More Read More

Why I’m now calling it for Ed Miliband

Why I’m now calling it for Ed Miliband

Comments 0 Comment

Are his political views most in tune with the movement? Until now I’ve been saying that I thought it was a 50-50 chance between the Miliband brothers and that that an EdM bet was the better value because his price was longer. Now I’m changing my view – I believe that Ed Miliband has a better chance of winning. There are two main reasons – firstly the progress his campaign seems to have made in the MP/MEP third of the…

Read More Read More

Did the result seep out early in the 2007 deputy race?

Did the result seep out early in the 2007 deputy race?

Comments 0 Comment

Politicalbetting June 24 2007 What caused the last minute rush to Harriet? With punters and pundits looking forward to Saturday’s big announcement on the next Labour leader I thought I’d look back and see what happened the last time this election process was used. Above is a piece published on June 24th 2007 here 75 minutes before the official deputy result was announced. As can be seen Alan Johnson was a rock solid odds-on favourite with the others nowhere. Then,…

Read More Read More

Is it foolhardy to be betting against YouGov?

Is it foolhardy to be betting against YouGov?

Comments 0 Comment

Why are punters ignoring the polling? The great mystery of the 2010 Labour leadership race has been that David Miliband has continued to be an odds-on favourite even though the only members’ and trade unionists’ polling since voting began showed that he was losing in these two segments of the electoral college. True the ex-foreign secretary has drifted from 1.2 on Betfair since the publication of the Sunday Times poll eleven days ago but he’s still the heavy odds-on favourite….

Read More Read More

Will the winner’s first act be to take on his MPs?

Will the winner’s first act be to take on his MPs?

Comments 0 Comment

Should HE choose the shadow cabinet – not the PLP? Whichever of the brothers wins Labour’s election (and online voting finishes at 5pm) he will inherit a structure which drastically reduces his ability to lead and shape the party in the manner that he thinks fit. For Labour, when in opposition, has an archaic rule that means that the shadow cabinet is elected by MPs and is not chosen by the leader. The winner will be castrated before he starts….

Read More Read More

Are Labour members driving John Rentoul to despair?

Are Labour members driving John Rentoul to despair?

Comments 0 Comment

Why do so many EdM voters think DM would be better? The uber-uber Tony Blair and now David Miliband loyalist, John Rentoul blogged overnight about some YouGov polling figures which are driving him to despair. For Rentoul, of the Independent of Sunday, is disturbed that the polling suggests that his man won’t make it in the Labour election although a large chunk of those voting Ed Miliband think that DavidM is more likely to lead his party to victory at…

Read More Read More

Are EdM’s supporters just more fired up?

Are EdM’s supporters just more fired up?

Comments 0 Comment

Is now the moment to get on the younger brother? After last night’s BBC Question Time leadership debate, in which all five acquitted themselves well, there are now almost no foreseeable events between now and the election closing. The big question is what’s going to happen in the betting? For currently the elder Miliband is the tight odds-on favourite while you can still get EdM at 1.94/1 on Betfair. The best traditional bookie price is 7/4. Those odds seem particularly…

Read More Read More