Hot betting LAB leadership favourite Keir Starmer first to make it onto the leadership ballot https://t.co/CQ0O2Bvokn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2020 Two things are working in Thornberry’s favour, as I understand it: the first is a desire by some members to widen the ballot because Starmer is already on, the second is that she has genuinely picked up support after her hustings. https://t.co/kO3iMjjJ1s — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) January 20, 2020
When Emily Thornberry threw an early hat into what is likely to become a crowded Labour leadership ring she did so with a vow to step down if it ever became clear, from the polls and her colleagues, that she couldn’t win a future election as a sign of her loyalty to the party. This was a fairly obvious shot at Jeremy Corbyn who went into the 2019 GE as the with the worst ratings of any major party leader…
We have not had a poll of LAB members since last July so the YouGov chart above is based on the latest data available. Since then, of course, three of those senior party figures tested by the firm are no longer possible runners. Tom Watson has quit being an MP, Laura Pidcock lost her seat at on December 12th while John McDonnell has made his intentions clear. Note that in the polling each potential leader was tested separately but it…
A guest slot from Egg The fuel to ignite the bitterness of the imminent Labour war is fact you cannot have remainers in the Labour Party now. How can you if the word has no meaning anymore, remainery has ceased to be, if the party ever wins again they will inherit a nation (or whats left of it) outside the EU. So it needs a compromise, does it not? Whether voting for one or betting on the outcome,…
And there’s little support for Corbyn’s claim to have “won the argument” The main poll this weekend is by BMG for the Independent which looks at both the policy profile that would command support and views of possible replacements for two-time loser, Corbyn who led his party to its worst general election since 1935. This, of course, is a general poll which is representative of the electorate as a whole and not Labour’s seleorate which will decide who the new…
As I wrote in the run-up to the general election, political betting markets can be lucrative ones for punters. One of the so-called ‘iron laws’ of Conservative leadership contests is that the front runner does not win it. In 2019, Boris Johnson finally put the myth to bed. Labour on the other hand have a different past, much more content to back the front runner and at time they have proved to be coronations rather than contests. 2019 has the…
>Betdata.io chart of Betfair exchange market Former favourite Keir Starmer slips badly as the betting hots up The chart shows the dramatic changes in the next LAB leader betting following LAB’s GE19 electoral defeat and the realisation that they look set to be faced with a Johnson big majority government for possibly the next five years. In the immediate aftermath of the result the money piled on Starmer but now that has sharply reversed with Rebecca London-Bailey making the running….
“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and 5 minutes to ruin it.” Buffet’s saying has been one which many in finance have had cause to ponder in recent years. Turned round, it applies to political parties: “a toxic reputation takes 5 minutes to develop, 20 years to shake off.” Consider how long it’s taken the Tories to get past (if they have) the “nasty party” tag. From its development in the 1980s, it was 18 years before the…