A forecast from Robert Let me start by saying this is not an election I have much confidence in predicting. But because that makes for an uninteresting article, I will make some forecasts. Currently the LDs are polling about 16-17%, which is about five points down on the peak they achieved after the European elections earlier this year. I think there’s around a 40% chance that they end up in the 14-19% range at the coming elections. I reckon there’s…
By two to one those polled think she should attend Further to this morning’s thread on the exclusion of LD leader Jo Swinson from the ITV General Election debate there’s now a YouGov poll carried out today that points to her desire to be there getting support from the public. Clearly LD voters are most supportive of her presence as the chart shows but there’s strong backing from LAB voters as well and CON ones back her by a small…
And another ex-CON MP joins the LDs This is all getting very tight. A new working day starts and there are just 23 to go before the article 50 deadline comes into being with the UK either leaving the EU or a further extension is agreed to. The above betdata.io chart shows that the betting money on Betfair going on the UK not actually leaving on the due date. This is the busiest current UK political betting market and I…
NEW @IpsosMORI /@standardnews POLL Good news and bad news for Boris Johnson. THREAD Good news for Johnson. Cons lead by 10pts Headline voting intention (likely voters) Conservatives 34%Labour 24%Lib Dem 20%Brexit Party 9%Green 6%SNP 4Others 4% Cons were +2 in June* — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) August 1, 2019 New @IpsosMORI / @standardnews Satisfaction with Jo Swinson's performance as Lib Dem leader Satisfied 35% (+7)Dissatisfied 40% (+12)Don't know 25% (-19)Net -5 (-5) 79% of Lib Dem supporters satisfied. Changes from July….
Today’s YouGov: Con 32%= LD 23+4 Lab 21-2 BXP 14= There is a new YouGov poll in the Times this morning which is the first one to have taken place since the Lib Dems at their conference voted to stop Brexit even without a referendum. The figures are above and will give a lot of reassurance to the new Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, with what has been widely criticised as a massive gamble in terms of policy. It has however got…
This weekend hundreds of LAB and LD activists will be heading for Sheffield Hallam, home of PB’s TSE, where there might or might not be a Westminster by-election in the next couple of months. This has been triggered by the statements last month by the man who won it for LAB at GE2017 that he plans to resign as an MP on September 3rd. Jared O’Mara was the person who took this off the ex-LD leader and Deputy PM, Nick…