Good news and bad news for Boris Johnson. THREAD
Good news for Johnson. Cons lead by 10pts
Headline voting intention (likely voters)
Lib Dem 20%
Brexit Party 9%
Cons were +2 in June*
— Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) August 1, 2019
Satisfaction with Jo Swinson's performance as Lib Dem leader
Satisfied 35% (+7)
Dissatisfied 40% (+12)
Don't know 25% (-19)
Net -5 (-5)
79% of Lib Dem supporters satisfied.
Changes from July.
— Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) September 19, 2019
At the Euro elections in May two pollsters stood out for the accuracy of the final polls – YouGov and Ipsos MORI. These were the only ones to have all the parties in the right order and were also pretty close with most of the final shares. They compared very well to the final results of all the other pollsters which did pretty badly.
As can be seen in Keiran’s Tweet the Lib Dems see an increase of 3% putting them on the the highest level, as David Herdson has Tweeted, since the final poll before GE2010.
Although Swinson’s net satisfaction is down the big change is in those having an opinion about her. A former regular PBer who used to follow leader ratings closely, Rod S, always maintained that the negative numbers were irrelevant – what mattered was the percentage giving positive rating
Given that we could be within in a couple of months of a general election the pollsters appear to be gearing up. I’ve just completed an Opinium survey that wanted to know my constituency and what I would do given, as the questionnaire said, this would be a battle between LAB and CON.
I’m not sure that this is right. The LDs have the elected Mayor and in the locals in May the Tories failed to win a council seat within the constituency that they held until GE2017.