Irish Times A new poll in the Irish Times today suggests that the outcome of the October 2nd referendum on whether Ireland should ratify Lisbon is getting tighter. The figures are with changes on the last poll three months ago: YES 46% (-8): NO 29% (+1): DON’T KNOW 25% At this stage before the 2008 referendum an Irish Times poll had YES 35%: NO 18%: DON’T KNOW 47%. The actual result, as I’m sure we are all aware, was a…
What are the mechanics of the next nine months? Ireland’s second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty will take place on 2 October. Assuming it’s passed what happens next could have consequences for the UK election. Three other countries have yet to ratify. In Germany there’s a legal challenge to the Constitutional Court and secondly – and as a result of the ruling from that challenge – the need to amend some domestic legislation. That is currently scheduled to be done…
Asahi.com Hatoyama will be next PM, DPJ has majority on its own The results from Japan’s general election are not quite complete, but what is clear is that the voters have delivered an earthquake to the ruling LDP, which has governed the country for almost all of the last 50 years. The DPJ has confirmed that it will lead a coalition including the Social Democrats and the People’s New Party, despite the fact that it will have about 70 more…
Could October 2nd produce another shock? At the end of last week the Dublin bookmaker, Paddy Power was reported as saying that sentiment on the betting markets over the Irish Lisbon Treaty referendum had moved more towards the “No” camp. Yes is still the firm favourite but there has not been a poll since June and that suggested that more than 54% would vote that way. But it’s being recalled that “Yes” was leading ahead of the last Lisbon referendum…
A few bets for consideration at home and abroad Following up on the recent autumn preview, here are a few betting opportunities that you might like to consider before the political scene starts to hot up again – naturally the usual caveats apply. Feedback on individual selections welcomed. Norway Norway votes on 14th September and didn’t get covered in the autumn preview, but Labour’s Jens Stoltenberg to be re-elected Prime Minister is 2/5 (in from 1/2) with Ladbrokes and looks…
Millais “Autumn Leaves” (Wikimedia Commons) What will the “season of mists” hold? So what will the “season of mists and mellow fruitfulness” hold for domestic and international politics – and where might you be investing some of your hard-earned cash on the betting markets? The usual caveats of political prediction apply – and as David Herdson rightly reminds us in this morning’s piece on Iran, it’s Macmillan’s “Events, dear boy, events” which are always liable to blow prognostications off course….
Foreign events have changed things before – could it happen again? In the immediate aftermath of the Iraq War, a senior Bush official was reported as saying “Real men don’t go to Baghdad, they go to Tehran.” If the neo-Cons who were pushing that agenda were as influential now as they were then, then the Iranian government’s current actions would be making their trigger fingers decidedly twitchy. Of course, not only are the neo-Cons of the Bush administration not in…
Wikimedia Commons Dan Hamilton takes an early look at Brazil 2010 On Sunday 10th October 2010, Brazilians will go to the polls to pick the country’s fourth directly-elected President since the resumption of civilian rule in 1985. The 2010 elections will mark the first Presidential election since 1989 in which incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former shoe-shiner and sheet metal worker, will not be a candidate. Choosing not to emulate the example of Colombia’s Alvaro Uribe or…