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Category: Guest slot

Antifrank compares 2015 to 1992

Antifrank compares 2015 to 1992

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We spend much time looking at the most recent developments.  But every now and then it is profitable to stand back and look at longer term trends.  That is most easily done by comparing elections which produced quite similar overall results and then looking at the detail.  The 1992 and the 2015 election results are sufficiently similar overall to make that a valuable exercise.  Except in Scotland. The overall result in 2015 was as follows: Con 330 Lab 232 SNP 56 Lib Dem 8 Plaid…

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Guest Slot from Peter the Punter: Matthew and Peter Go To The Seaside – with a Marf cartoon

Guest Slot from Peter the Punter: Matthew and Peter Go To The Seaside – with a Marf cartoon

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Clacton doesn’t look like being the most exciting of elections. Matthew Shadwick [Shadsy] of Ladbrokes was kind enough to invite me along on a visit to the scene of one of tomorrow’s by-elections. I wondered whether he might need help collecting a flood of money, or maybe he just wanted some company while he stood outside the firm’s shop on Pier Avenue with his board optimistically offering odds of 1/50 UKIP, 14/1 Conservative and 33/1 Labour. We’d arranged to meet…

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Corporeal looks at electoral precedent

Corporeal looks at electoral precedent

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The next election result is likely to be a strange one, as the following Ipsos-Mori tweet alludes to No gov increase in vote share since 1955, no opposition in office after 1 term out since 1931, no 2 hung parliaments in a row since 1910… — Ipsos MORI (@IpsosMORI) September 22, 2014 (On a follow up tweet they noted that it should read no majority government, Wilson’s calling of a swift 2nd election in 1974 produced a small uptick for…

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Corporeal on constitutional reform

Corporeal on constitutional reform

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If there’s a consistent tradition in British constitutional reform, it’s a philosophy of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” (and usually to make the fix a patch up of the specific problem, or what Toby Fenwick dubbed an ‘inelegant fudge’). If you wanted to squeeze it into a metaphor (always fun) then it is a long-standing mansion. Ancient in parts, with extensions and alterations added through the years. Bits have been built, rebuilt, done up knocked down, expanded, downsized,…

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Guest Slot: All publicity is good publicity? Maybe not when Ed Miliband is on TV

Guest Slot: All publicity is good publicity? Maybe not when Ed Miliband is on TV

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UK General Elections, we are told have become increasingly presidential. And how each party leader comes across, particularly on Television, is important. Ed Miliband has faced criticism for his style and communication skills – It’s probably fair to comment that he’s not a natural TV performer. But what if it’s slightly worse than that? What if his television appearances have, overall, a slight negative effect on Labour’s vote share in the polls? We should look at the evidence – What…

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Guest Slot: Rod Crosby: The bell tolls for Labour and Miliband

Guest Slot: Rod Crosby: The bell tolls for Labour and Miliband

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Last week Labour beat the Tories in the local elections by just 1%, according to the Rallings and Thrasher NEV (national equivalent voteshare) calculation. This is the last set of locals before the general election. Is there anything we can divine from this performance? Yes, it looks like Labour will be soundly defeated next year. The following graph tells the tale (general elections bordered in white). We see that, going back to 1979, no party with such a minuscule lead…

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Harry Hayfield: YouGov have had their say, now it is my turn

Harry Hayfield: YouGov have had their say, now it is my turn

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Since the start of the year, I have been tracking all the polls that have been published about the Euros and taking sage advice from Mike’s postings about polling companies not prompting for the Greens and taking in account all the discussions about what “An Independence from Europe” may have on UKIP, I have come to the following conclusion. It’s too darn close to call. Based on all the polls, I am having a very hard time separating Labour and…

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Guest Slot: Five reasons to bet on Labour winning the Euros this Thursday

Guest Slot: Five reasons to bet on Labour winning the Euros this Thursday

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Predicting an election when the three top parties could well end up within three or four points of one and other and in any order of gold, silver and bronze is likely a fool’s errand. But finding value in the betting market before Thursday isn’t. There’s big reasons for Labour to rightfully worry about UKIP this Thursday (the continued erosion of its blue collar base, UKIP in-roads on Labour-identifying non-voters etc, the immigration issue etc). But there’s also small things…

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