Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 11 Feb 19 CONSERVATIVES 39% 38% LABOUR 26% 26% LIB DEMS 18% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 8% 7.5% So why the difference between the two online pollsters? Here’s the second poll of the night – the exclusive Angus Reid one for Politicalbetting – which is showing a radically different picture than YouGov a few minutes ago. On the face of it this is odd – for both operate on-line confining their polling…
YouGov poll (The Sun) Mar 11 Mar 10 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 34% 32% LIB DEMS 17% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 4% Within the MOE – but will it affect the narrative ? So here it is – tonight’s daily poll which was not as falsely reported by a commenter earlier in the evening. This might give some comfort to Labour but I guess that all parties will want to see this sort of move supported…
All views are welcome especially from lurkers In conjunction with Woodnewton Associates we are carrying out a survey of PB users to find out more about ourselves, how we might improve the site and also to get a feel for the political make-up of the PB community. This is the first time we’ve ever attempted anything like this and the more people that take part the better it will be. If you’ve got five minutes then please fill in the…
Look at how out of line it was in March 1997 One of the phrases you hear time and time again about ICM’s polling is that it is “The Gold Standard”. This came from its performance at the 1997 general election when it was wildly out of line with everybody else and ended up being proved right. Just look at the panel for almost exactly thirteen years ago ahead of the election that brought Tony Blair to power. Those were,…
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 9 Mar 8 CONSERVATIVES 36% 39% LABOUR 32% 34% LIB DEMS 20% 16% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 4% But why have the Tories and Labour gone down? Inevitably the daily poll is going to throw up some odd quirks and this evening we see big moves by all the main parties. As far as I can see the reason that the Lib Dems have moved is that Nick Clegg got a…
YouGov daily poll: The Sun 08/03/10 Prev CONSERVATIVES 39% 38 LABOUR 34% 33 LIB DEMS 16% 17 LAB to CON swing 4% 4% So YouGov continues to show a Labour share that is higher than other pollsters and the 34% means that Labour is hanging onto seventeen out eighteen of those who backed Blair’s party in 2005. That is certainly not supported by the splits linked to past vote reported by other firms. The Tory share is broadly in line…
“Opinium” for the Express 08/03/10 2005 CONSERVATIVES 37% 33.2 LABOUR 30% 36.2 LIB DEMS 16% 22.7 LAB to CON swing 5% ?? This is a new one on me and needs further investigating. According to reports “The poll was taken by Opinium from 5th to 8th March using what is described as “their research panel†of 1960 individuals.” I wonder whether they poll the same 1960 individuals again and again? We don’t know – but I’m sure all will become…
Ipsos-MORI What does this say about potential turnout? Two of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been political polling in the UK for longer than any other firm with a website that has a mine of information going back decades. Another good thing is that the firm’s non-voting intention questions are generally very well drawn up and they use the same form time and time again. Take this table reproduced above with responses over nearly a quarter…