ICM Guardian Apr 18 Apr 15 CONSERVATIVES 33% 34% LIB DEMS 30% 28% LABOUR 28% 29% And is Labour losing more to Clegg than the Tories? So here we are – another poll confirming the big trend. The Lib Dem surge has survived the weekend and is showing no sign of abating. It really is beginning to look as that there has been a step-change in opinion and this is taken place barely two and a half weeks before election…
Could this affect Commons seats projections? Most people with an interest in politics and election outcomes are familiar with the term – Uniform National Swing but there is often a lot of confusion on how the numbers are made up? For a key element is that the swing is not applied proportionately in each seat – but according to the number in percentage points change that, say, a new poll represents. So based on the latest 33% poll share the…
Please continue tonight’s discussions here. Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) www.electiongame.co.uk
YouGov daily poll – Sun Apr 18 Apr 17 LIB DEMS 33% 29% CONSERVATIVES 32% 33% LABOUR 26% 30% Labour take a big hit as the yellow surge continues With all the speculation that the move to the yellows would fizzle out quickly the latest YouGov daily poll continues the good news for Clegg and his team The Lib Dems have now edged about the Tories while at the same time there’s been a sharp drop in the Labour vote…
Should we follow the old American “rule” There’s an old adage about US presidential elections which has been magnified since TV debates started in 1960 – the tallest contender generally ends up winning the election I wonder whether the affect could be happening here. Did Clegg’s stature give him an edge last Thursday night and might that be a good pointer to May 6th? Looking forward to the next debate Thursday PaddyPower has a tricast market – you forecast the…
YouGov daily poll Apr 17 Apr 16 CONSERVATIVES 33% 33% LABOUR 30% 28% LIB DEMS 29% 30%  Labour back in second but just 4% between the Big Three Tonight’s YouGov poll has the Lib Dems dropping back behind Labour but their 29% share is still an extremely strong showing and reconfirms the trend from all pollsters since the debate on Thursday. That these figures would produce a hung parliament is unarguable. Quite what the shape of that parliament would be…
BPIX – Mail on Sunday Apr 17 Apr 10 LIB DEMS 32% 20% CONSERVATIVES 31% 38% LABOUR 28% 31% According to reports on SkyNews the Mail on Sunday’s pollster, BPIX/YouGov, has the Lib Dems in the lead. This is a sensational development and will add further to the woes at Cameron Towers. BPIX/YouGov, as I say every-time a survey comes out, operates on the YouGov platform using the YouGov panel but, one assumes, has its own methodology. Alas the firm…
YouGov daily poll Apr 16 Apr 15 CONSERVATIVES 33% 37% LABOUR 28% 31% LIB DEMS 30% 22% But can the UNS work with these sorts of shifts? So the rumours were right and the Lib Dems have over-taken Labour – at the expense of drops of 4 and 3 for the Tories and Labour. But how seriously can we take the UNS predictions with these sorts of changes? The truth is that nobody really knows how such a result would…