politicalbetting.com

Does parliament need more youngsters? The 2010 parliament differs from its predecessor in many ways: 35% of its members are newly elected, there are a lot more Conservatives and there are nearly twice as many ethnic minority MP’s as before, to list three. In other ways, it’s more of the same: over three-quarters are men, an overwhelming majority have a white-collar occupational background and the average age of MP’s is about fifty. That average age is representative of adults in…

Read More Read More

Can Monckton attract the climate change sceptics? The is Viscount Monckton (Christopher) – the former Thatcher aide who has become one of the world’s leading climate change sceptics and from this afternoon, it is Tweeted, the new deputy leader of UKIP. Monckton, who has a hereditary peerage but does not have a seat in the Lords, is related to the former Tory Chancellor and fellow climate change sceptic, Nigel Lawson. He is an experienced political campaigner and will add much…

Read More Read More

“Clegg doing well or badly?” Well Badly All voters 61% 17% Tory voters 85% 5% Labour voters 28% 40% LD voters 82% 3% “Cameron doing well or badly?” Well Badly All voters 57% 15% Tory voters 92% 0% Labour voters 23% 39% LD voters 62% 5% What does this say about the coalition? Some interesting leadership approval data from YouGov suggests that both Lib Dem and Tory voters are not too uncomfortable about the coalition. There’s strong support for Cameron…

Read More Read More

Could he have stopped the formation of the coalition? Labour blogger, Tom Harris MP, raises a very interesting counter-factual over what would have happened if Mr. Brown had resigned on the Friday afternoon after the election. Did the then PM’s actions, as Harris suggests, make it easier for the coalition to be formed? Under the heading “Gordon must take his share of the blame for the Coalition” he writes: “…why didn’t Gordon Brown simply resign as Prime Minister on the…

Read More Read More

Remember their 10-point guide to CGT avoidance? Three days before Gordon Brown became Prime Minister the Telegraph published this guide to property owners wanting to avoid capital gains tax. One choice bit was: “Become a butterfly and flit between homes Or in the jargon, switch “principal private residence” exemptions between properties. All gains on property are taxable with the exception of the home you live in which the taxman calls your principal private residence. However, if you own more than…

Read More Read More

Telegraph Tonight’s “revelation” from the Telegraph The target is the new Treasury Secretary, Danny Alexander who, according to the report, did not pay capital gains tax on the sale of a property. Has he operated illegally? Apparently not. So what’s the big the deal? Is the paper suggesting that citizens, not just MPs alone, should so arrange their affairs to maximise the tax they pay? That’s getting into a dangerous and contentious area. It will be interesting to see what…

Read More Read More

“..I think I will save the events of the last 45 mins for my memoirs. I wish I could tell u what’s going on, but if I did I’d have to kill u..” Just over half an hour after Tweeting with news that David Laws was planning to resign Iain Dale published another Tweet, featured above, which I have been puzzling over ever since. This came out shortly after 7pm and before the news of the resignation got picked up…

Read More Read More

I’m hoping that there’ll be a betting market up quite soon on whether David Laws will return to government as a minister. Certainly the warm tone of David Cameron’s letter seems to indicate that this might be possible. The PM concluded: “I hope that, in time, you will be able to serve again as I think it is absolutely clear that you have a huge amount to offer our country”. Peter Mandelson, it will be recalled, had several comebacks. Clearly…

Read More Read More