Is Kerry really 13% behind? Punters who’ve been basing their White House race betting on the opinion polls should read this before investing anymore money. According to this report Gallup – used by US Today and CNN and currently showing a Bush 13% lead – assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans, and only 33% will be Democrat. Apparently that’s how they make up the sample on which their poll results are based….
The day the Tories lost it Today is the 12th anniversary of Black Wednesday – September 16 1992 – the day when the pound was forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism after billions had been spent trying to prop it up. The day made currency traders like George Soros rich, it boosted Euro-scepticism, and it’s been described as “the defining failure of John Major’s government”. It was also the day that the public stopped trusting the Tories and they…
Break the piggy bank to bet on Labour at 4/7 Following tonight’s poll on the Hartlepool by-election on Channel 4 it almost worth breaking the piggy bank to get money on. The latest Hartlepool prices are here. Given the scale of the poll we cannot see the Labour odds staying at 4/7 for very long. We notice that William Hill’s market is not appearing on the odds search engine -they’ve probably withdrawn it until a review tomorrow morning. You can…
bbc Labour Chair Ian McCartney warns against Labour complacency Yesterday’s lead story in the Independent on Sunday on Ian McCartney’s warnings on the dangers of complacency and Labour MPs saying that the party faces “catastrophe at the General Election” has made no impression on political gamblers. The Commons seat markets on Bet365 remain unchanged. It’s still evens that Labour will get 335 seats or less – a total that would give it a majority of 22. The spread markets, are…
What’s happened to the Labour campaign? A couple of weeks before the July contests we advised punters wanting to place a bet to subject the competing parties to the Google Test. For Google’s success as the world’s number one search engine has been based on providing the most relevant results in an order based, in broad terms, on the popularity of the site. At Brent East and Leicester South the Lib Dems dominated the first search pages. At Hodge Hill,…
“A bully & a big-mouth” – Matthew Parris, The Times With a Times commentator calling him this morning a “bully and a big-mouth” Alan Milburn has been installed as 3/1 second favourite to succeed Tony Blair as permanent Leader of the Labour Party by William Hill who make Gordon Brown 4/6 favourite and also offer 16/1 Charles Clarke, Jack Straw; 20/1 Patricia Hewitt; John Reid; 25/1 David Blunkett. This market is not yet available online. The move follows the ructions…
It’s not been picked up by the pundits or the betting markets but ALL four of the main opinion polls have shown Tory gains in August. YouGov (Aug 27) 34%(+1) L34%(nc!) LD21% (-2%) ICM (Aug15) C33%(+3) L36%(+1) LD22%(-3) MORI (Aug 16) C32%(+1) L36%(+4) LD21%(-3) Populus (Aug 1) C32%(+3) L32%(-1) LD24% (nc) With the UKIP effect continuing to unwind there is the potenial for further improvements but all this is being ignored by the betting markets. Latest spread-betting prices. LAB 343-351…
The betting exchange, Betfair, have now opened a market on the Hartlepool by-election. So far there are very few backers and layers but Labour is just favourite over the LDs. Labour are 1/2 while the LD current price is 2/3. This could change quickly. If I was sitting in front of my computer rather than composing this on my smartphone sitting on a French beach I would be trying to lay Labour at 1/2. There are only 2 parties in…