Today’s report by the Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, John Curtice, showing how Labour could lose its overall majority even though the Tories are at a standstill has had zero impact on the betting markets. No spread prices have been available for a few days from SportingIndex market but at IG the spreads ended the day at the same level as they started:- LAB 340-348: CON 200-208: LD 70-74 The best price on Labour getting most seats remains at…
A proposal for a new monthly betting market With almost all the main betting markets linked to the General Election we have been looking at how something could be created to bet on that would produce an outcome every month – where punters could test their judgement on the changing political mood. The idea would be to have regular monthly markets linked to the different party shares on the main opinion polls. Thus for November, say, with the focus on…
1. Be aware of the dangers of wishful thinking The race for the Presidency was something that many punters, including me, cared passionately about and with that mind-set it is very easy to get carried away with wishful thinking. The only evidence you see is that which supports your desired outcome. So when the the exit poll leaks started I felt a sense of excitement and was one of those who backed Kerry strongly on the betting exchanges. The news…
Hilary the favourite for next time For political punters who cannot get enough of US elections William Hill have opened a market on who will win in four years time. The 6/1 favourite is Hilary Clinton, the Senator from New York and spouse of former President Bill Clinton. Behind her in the betting is former New York mayor, Rudolph Giuliani at 7/1. Hills also offer: 10/1 John Edwards; Tom Ridge; Bill Richardson; 12/1 Bill Frist; 14/1 Jeb Bush; 25/1 Barack…
It does now look like Kerry The leaked exit polls have caused big changes on the betting markets which, if correct, mean that George Bush will follow his father in becoming a one-term president. The latest betting numbers:- Betfair: Bush 3.75 Kerry 1.35 Tradesports: Bush 29 Kerry 71 Iowa Exchange: Bush 21 Kerry 79 These are the figures from Wonkette – make of them what you will. If Kerry is winning in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania then the election is…
Kerry now favourite on Iowa, Tradesports and Betfair The last half hour has seen a big move to Kerry on both the Iowa Electronic “Political Futures Exchange” and the Betfair exchange in the UK. Kerry is a strong favourite in Iowa and, as of time of posting, it is 2 – 1.9 on Betfair. Tradesports has it Kerry 50.5 to Bush 49.5. It is not clear whether this move is on the basis of hard information or whether one market…
It looks as though the first hard information from the exit polls will start emerging by about 5pm EST or 10 pm GMT and this should start to affect the betting fairly quickly. This appeared on Slate an hour or so ago and gives a good guide to what is likely to happen. As this item posts, the first raw exit poll data are streaming from the National Election Pool consortium owned by the Associated Press and the five television…
Sharp move to Kerry after Iraq explosives video Betting on the US election on both sides of the Atlantic has taken a sharp turn to John Kerry after ABC News screen a video (above) purporting to show US troops with the missing Iraqi explosives nine days after Baghdad fell. The pro-War former Bush supporter and Sunday Times columnist, Andrew Sullivan, describes it like this – What we’re seeing is the slow exposure of the reality of the Iraq war. No:…