Thankfully for Lembit not many LDs read the Daily Mail There is absolutely no doubt about which Lib Dem is going to account for the most column inches during the 2007. For you cannot go round, as the Mail reported, telling complete strangers that they “have the best breasts in Wales” and expect to survive as party shadow spokesman on the Principality. The tabloids are on to Lembit now and surely the only question is how long will it be…
What will be the size of the “Brown Bounce“? A key question in our Predicting 2007 competition, to be published tomorrow, will be on the effect of a new Labour leader. What will be the increase in the average of Populus/ICM/YouGov surveys of a new person taking over. Here the change in the PBC Polling Average in the first month is what we are seeking. Also what will Labour’s position be by the same measure two months afterwards? Another of…
Wouldn’t it be nice…..If we could get from here….. …to here? Well, perhaps we can…. I just DID!! The second graph was created using only the few datapoints from the first graph, and a clever box-of-tricks called the Kalman Filter. What on earth is a Kalman Filter? Believe it or not, it is a statistical routine that originated in the 1960s in the fields of engineering and signal processing. The Kalman Filter is mathematically proven to be the optimal way…
Will his 9/11 families strategy rebound? If you look at the betting on who will get the Republican nomination for the 2008 White House race there is only one person in it – the Vietnam veteran and Senator from Arizona, John McCain. His price is now at 1.36/1 and is way ahead of the second favourite, the ex-Mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani. Yet if you check the latest polls a different picture emerges – Giuliani has significant leads over…
PBC’s first ever poster and David R get the prizes The first person ever to post a comment on PBC, Tim Hill (AKA Big Tall Tim) and David R are the winners of our two outstanding competitions – on the US Mid Terms and the “2006 Prediction Contest“. Tim, whose first post from March 29th 2004 is reproduced above, is a close friend and is a former PPC and Councillor for the Lib Dems in Bedfordshire. These were the top…
Happy Christmas to everybody? A new report from Alexa, the Amazon off-shoot that monitors internet traffic world-wide, places Politicalbetting.com as the sixth most visited news and media politics site in the UK ahead of even the sites of those well established political journals the New Statesman and the Spectator. YouGov is up there at number two because of all the traffic generated by its online polling. In the past week users filling in surveys have given it a page view…
But it’s 45-32 on the Cameron-Brown forced choice This month’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph shows very little movement on a month ago. These are the shares – CON 37% (nc): LAB 33% (+1): LD 17% (+1). So the overall Tory lead is down a point with Labour and the Lib Dems both putting on a point. But the named leader measure that YouGov uses – a forced choice asking “would you prefer to see after the next election,…
Best of luck from everyone associated with PBC For the past twenty months the discussions on PBC have been enriched by the wit, knowledge, and good judgement of Jack W who posted first on March 25th 2005 and has made a staggering 8,091 separate contributions. We had this message from him yesterday. Jack W says TTFN. I regret to report that this is something of a valedictory post from moi, at least for now I hope. Having seen off lifes…