politicalbetting.com

How influential is one of Gordon’s first “victims” Frank Field, the former child poverty activist and widely regarded as one of Labour’s leading thinkers has a powerfully argued article in the Guardian this morning saying that the party needs to skip a generation and go for David Miliband for leader. Field, it will be recalled, was made Minster for Welfare Reform in 1997 but left the government the following year after furious clashes with Gordon Brown. He was the subject…

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Should we do the same as last year? Mike’s too busy working out how much money his book is going to make him so somebody else is going to have to organise this year’s PB Party. I’m happy to do it if I can have some assistance. Apparently Book Value and Innocent Abroad helped out last year. Any volunteers this year? I’ll put in £100 from the money I’m going to win on John Cruddas. I think Henry G offered…

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The Blurb Who’s going to win the next UK general election? Who’s going to be the next US president? The next president of France? You probably have an opinion, but are you wiling to put money on it? In this unique new book Mike Smithson, the man behind politicalbetting.com, takes a detailed look at the world of political gambling. From the basics of how and where to gamble to the characteristics of the main markets and the forms of betting…

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Could Blair’s next interview be “under caution”? The paper goes on to suggest that the Prime Minister could face a third interview. Explaining the events of the past week the papers says “It was the McTernan breakthrough that led to Miss Turner and then Lord Levy being arrested in the past two weeks. In between those arrests Mr Blair was secretly quizzed at No 10. The new developments came after the News of the World revealed that a mole at…

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…meanwhile PBC’s audience continues to rise We’ve had a bit of a shake-up of the faces on our masthead. In come the two leading contenders for the French presidency, Alex Salmond, David Miliband, Barack Obama and Assistant Commissioner Yates. There is no one with Lib Dem link because there is no real betting interest. I had thought of a Cheeky Girl but then thought that the most important person in UK politics today is Assistant Commander Yates. As the table…

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Lib Dems up and UKIP don’t even register So with the changes on December the main shares are CON 39 (+2): LAB 35 (-1): LD 19 (+1). Like all MORI polls the headline numbers are restricted to the views of those who are certain to vote. As we have discussed here before Mori have a very different approach to ICM and Populus. The pollster does not seek to predict the General Election but rather give a barometer of what current…

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While everybody else was focussed on the developments in the honours investigation this was the story that attracted the most interest on CONtinuityIDS yesterday – 46 comments against 31 for Blair. Good to see a sense of proportion there. Meanwhile Tim Montgomerie, who has done a good job developing the site, has asked me to write a piece for Monday. Will I be “the hero of the day?”. Mike Smithson

Big news within the past ten minutes could see changes on the various Labour succession markets. More will follow here as the story devolops. Mike Smithson