Is Harman ready to pick up the lion’s share of Benn’s support? The above is the last poll of Labour members on the coming deputy leadership election which was taken just over two weeks ago. Clearly if Benn gets the nominations then he is worthy of his 7/2 third favourite status – particularly as he is picking up so much of the female vote as can be seen in the chart. But how are the 36% that placed Benn top…
Will McDonnell manage to get the 44 nominations? After this afternoon’s announcement that Michael Meacher is standing aside to let John McDonnell run the big issue is whether he’ll get the required 44 nominations to be on the ballot alongside Brown. He has until Thursday and will be helped, no doubt by his assured performance in last night’s debate. He’ll also attract a fair degree of media attention in the coming days and my guess is that people are going…
The Lib Dems drop to 15% Reports are coming out about new YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Times that has Labour at its highest rating for 8 months – on 34%. The figures are compared with the last YouGov poll taken before and on the May 3rd elections are: CON 38% (+1): LAB 34% (+2): LD 15% (-1). According to Iain Dale’s blog Labour slips back to 32% if Brown is leader, ten points behind Cameron’s Tories who rise to…
How Did the Parties Fare on May 3rd? The Conservatives won 5,315 English council seats on May 3rd, a net gain of 911. The Liberal Democrats won 2,171, a net loss of 246. Labour won 1,877 seats, a net loss of 505. The Conservatives made a net gain of 39 councils, leaving them with control of 206, Labour a net loss of 8, leaving them with control of 46, and the Liberal Democrats a net loss of 4, leaving them…
Is this an indication of things to come? It is an indication of how much we have become accustomed to slick presentation and attention to the fine detail of how they look on the screen from the Blairs and Camerons of this world that today’s Brown launch comes as such a shock. For the moment that Gordon has been waiting since 1994, the official launch of his leadership campaign, appears decidedly odd on TV screens because a large part of…
What will politics be like in a world without Blair? We have known for months that this was coming but still the hard fact that Tony Blair will not be Prime Minister from June 27th still comes as a shock. Politics have been so framed for so long by Blair that’s it’s going to be hard adjusting to what things will be like without him. Will this mean that Labour can start to rebuild its popularity or has Blair been…
Philippe almost spot-on in 2nd Round Competition Following Sarkozy’s win over Royal by 53.06% to 46.94, winning 73 départements to her 33, the results of the pb.com 2nd round competition are shown above. The top five players all managed to get their predictions within 0.1% of the actual result. Also, the tie-breaker was needed to separate second and third place. Final ratification of the election results is awaited from the Constitutional Council, but the Interior Ministry figures are unlikely to…
Privately commissioned survey brings more bad news A YouGov survey commissioned by the Harriet Harman campaign for the deputy leadership has just been published and shows a two point drop in support for Ming’s party. Although no top line figures were issued an extrapolation from the detailed data shows the following shares with changes on the last survey from the pollster eleven days ago CON 37% (nc): LAB 32% (nc): LD 16% (-2). The survey was carried out from Tuesday…