The PBC French Election Competition

The PBC French Election Competition

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    Philippe almost spot-on in 2nd Round Competition

Following Sarkozy’s win over Royal by 53.06% to 46.94, winning 73 départements to her 33, the results of the 2nd round competition are shown above. The top five players all managed to get their predictions within 0.1% of the actual result.

Also, the tie-breaker was needed to separate second and third place. Final ratification of the election results is awaited from the Constitutional Council, but the Interior Ministry figures are unlikely to change.

There were 64 entries, splitting 53-11 to Sarkozy, with an average prediction of Sarkozy 52.34 Royal 47.66, and an average tie-break prediction of 69.14. Sarkozy was thus underestimated by an average of 0.72%.

A full listing of the results is available here:France 2007 2nd Round

The tie-breaker result was 68.08%, Sarkozy’s score in Alpes-Maritimes – he also cleared 65% in Bas-Rhin, Haut-Rhin, and Var. Royal’s best score in metropolitan France was 59.56% in Ariège, although she scored above 60% in three DOM-TOM with Réunion at 63.58 her best showing.

Compared to Chirac v Jospin in 1995, the Paris region, Brittany, and the Massif Central down to the Southwest all swung to the Left, while the rest of the country, including the North, the East, and the Mediterranean coast moved to the Right. Sarkozy’s 0.4% improvement over Chirac’s 1995 score thus concealed massive regional variations.

Many thanks to Chris and Mister Chip for their invaluable commentary on the election.

Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”

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