Who’ll get it if Benn isn’t on the ballot?

Who’ll get it if Benn isn’t on the ballot?

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    Is Harman ready to pick up the lion’s share of Benn’s support?

The above is the last poll of Labour members on the coming deputy leadership election which was taken just over two weeks ago.

Clearly if Benn gets the nominations then he is worthy of his 7/2 third favourite status – particularly as he is picking up so much of the female vote as can be seen in the chart.

    But how are the 36% that placed Benn top going to react if the International Development Secretary fails to come up with the 44 nominations that are required – somthing that is starting to look possible?

Will they go to Alan Johnson or will the desire to have a woman in the position see Harriet home? The fact that the latter has the backing of Brown’s close supporters makes it more likely that Harman will get it.

You can see why Gordon is so keen to get a gender balance on the leadership ticket particularly as the battle for women voters generally is going to be a key fight at the general election.

My guess is that Benn is not going to be there and Harman now appears to be a value bet at 3/1.

Mike Smithson

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