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Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % ComRes/Independent (phone) 09/01/11 34 42 12 ComRes/IoS-S.Mirror(Online) 17/12/10 37 39 11 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 29/11/10 36 40 12 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 19/11/10 37 38 13 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 31/10/10 35 37 16 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 15/10/10 40 34 14 ComRes/Independent (Online) 01/10/10 39 36 15 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 16/09/10 37 35 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 05/09/10 38 34 18 ComRes/Mirror/GMTV (Phone) 15/08/10 39 33 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 08/08/10 39 33 16 ComRes/Independent…

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Jack Straw addresses a meeting of one – Channel 4 Why are voters keeping it so close to their chests? A former Tory MP who has been doing extensive phone canvassing for the by-election told me on Friday of how difficult it was getting any response or indication from those he had contacted in the constituency. He’d made dozens of contacts but call after call ended in the same way. He put it all down to “northern reticence” and maybe…

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David Cameron David Cameron “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (Dec 17) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 47 (-2) 96 9 81 Badly 45 (+1) 4 87 16 Ed Miliband Ed Miliband “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (Dec 17) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 28(-2) 12 59 22 Badly 49(+5) 67 26 60 Nick Clegg Nick Clegg “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (Dec 17) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 30(nc) 61 6 80 Badly 60 (nc) 31 91…

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Both have the Tories well behind Still to come tonight are details of the Survation poll. The question is whether these numbers – the Populus 46/29/15 and the ICM 44/27/18 will have any impact on tactical voting in the final phase of the campaign. It is also interesting that Populus, which did name the candidates in the question have a a LD margin over the Tories that is a fair bit bigger than the ICM one. When we get the…

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There are, we are told, two by-election polls coming out overnight but I can’t work out which pollster is carrying out the Sunday Telegraph one. ICM say it’s not them YouGov say their panel system means they can’t do single seat polls Ipsos-MORI say it’s not them ComRes say it’s not them The one poll we do know about is Survation which is being carried by one of the papers. The only other main pollster is Populus and I have…

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Could there be more than one by-election poll? There’ve been a lot of rumours about amongst campaigners in Oldham East & Saddleworth that several by-election polls might be in the offing. One suggested that a YouGov OES survey was about to come out – a rumour that has been knocked on the head by the firm’s deputy head of political polling, Anthony Wells. Andrew Hawkins of ComRes, which has carried out surveys at other by-elections, tells me that his firm…

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Is the former Labour MP almost a local? So the first of the former Labour MPs to face criminal charges over the MPs expenses, David Chaytor who used to sit for Bury North, has been given an eighteen month jail sentence after pleading guilty. During the case it was said that he’d “siphon off” public money he was not entitled to by providing false documents. His defence said he was was entitled to the money and said that he showed…

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