Two new polls show big Tory deficits Above are two of the front pages from the Sunday papers at the start of what could be a historic week in British politics. Is Gord going to take the plunge? Can the Tories turn their desperate polling position round? The main Ipsos-Mori poll for the month is out and in the Observer. This shows the following shares with comparisons on the last Mori survey a week and a half ago – CON…
Can Cameron turn it round? Like Iain Duncan Smith in 2003, and Michael Howard in 2004, David Cameron goes to the Conservative conference in a desperate position. Labour has an opinion poll lead that would give it an increased majority, were it to be repeated in a general election, and there are certainly some members of his party who would love nothing more than an outbreak of civil war at the party conference. Many senior figures in the Labour party…
Above is the front page of the Guardian as featured on the SkyNews website. But there’s no reference anywhere, it seems, to the numbers that are apparently on the front page. Has anybody got a copy? Does anybody know? Mike Smithson
Or is Ken certain of a third successive victory? This morning’s news that Boris Johnson had won an overwhelming victory in the Tory “open primary” to choose its mayoral candidate will hardly come as a surprise. In races like this it’s the most well-known that usually clinches it and there could have been little doubt that the former Spectator editor fits that category. But what are his chances? Is it possible that he could give Labour’s unopposed choice, Ken Livingstone,…
Can he appeal to Ming’s party and make speeches like yesterday’s? As discussed yesterday the move to Labour in the polls has been as a result of two major developments – more Labour supporters are saying that they would be certain to vote and the party is winning back support from the party that Brown irritatingly refers to as “the Liberals”. The idea of “Gordon Conservatives” is, for the moment, a device to put pressure on the Tories. All the…
Was last night’s YouGov poll claim a spoof? According to a contributor on the site last night there should have been a YouGov poll out this morning showing a 9% Labour lead. The poster, cj, has only been making contributions here since August 30th and from his contributions overnight overnight it appeared that he might be trying to deceive. At 10.30 pm he wrote “im hearing that yougov is VERY bad for the tories tomorrow…i should have intention figures by…
Is Cameron finally losing his right wing? The above is part of the detailed data from yesterday’s ICM poll in the Guardian and has figures which should be deeply worrying for the Tory leadership. The section I reproduce shows the current voting intentions of those who said they voted for the three main parties in 2005 and the figure that stands out is the proportion of 2005 Tory voters who now say they will switch to UKIP. From a quick…
Is Darling right to give a government guarantee? The news within the past hour that the government is to guarantee the deposits of all savers in Northern Rock will be a massive relief to those who have got their savings tied up in the former building society turned plc. But is it the right decision? Should it be the government’s job to step in to safeguard people from their own investment decisions? Will it be setting precedents for the future?…