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So who’s going to do best out of tonight’s caucuses? After months of fundraising, debates, speculation, and poll-watching, the moment has finally arrived, and the Iowa caucuses, the first time that people actually get to vote on the merits of the rival candidates, are here. The caucuses kick off at 1am UK time and C-Span’s streaming coverage will start at midnight (7pm ET). The Betfair Iowa markets are now “in-play” and have Obama and Huckabee as strong odds-on favourites to…

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A look ahead to the year in politics Later today on PBC: the Iowa caucuses It can often be foolhardy to predict the year ahead in public, as one’s predictions can often look ridiculous by the end of the year – or if you’re lucky, extraordinarily prescient. With that in mind, a few thoughts on 2008, for the UK, USA, and the rest of the world. UK My “long view” is that May 2010 will be the election date, and…

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How well did you do at forecasting the political scene last year? The final results for the 2007 PBC prediction competition have now been number-crunched – the top 20 are shown above, while the full results are available via the link below. Congratulations to the leading forecasters and thanks to everyone who took part. PBC 2007 results detail 2007 – a brief look back The 2007 political year has now been put to bed, in many ways a momentous year…

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..best wishes for the New Year There was going to be a cross-word this Christmas Day which has been produced by StJohn – one of our most regular contributors. Alas I have found it impossible to format it for the site and this will have to wait. This is our fourth Christmas since the site was started and can I thank all who have made it possible. These include my son Robert and his wife Lucille for the technical infrastructure…

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So it’s only five Grumpy Gordons There’s been a dramatic improvement in Labour’s polling position according to the Guardian’s December poll which is due to be published tomorrow. The shares are with changes on the last survey from the pollster CON 39% (-2): LAB 34% (+4) LD 18% (-1). For both the Tories and the Lib Dems under their new leader these figures will be enormously disappointing. Nick Clegg must have been hoping for some sort of boost following his…

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Will Clegg’s statement be a vote winner or a vote loser? If Nick Clegg had been running for the president of the US then his comments today about not believing in God could have been the defining moment of the campaign. Just a fortnight ago in one of the Republican debates a questioner pushed forward a copy of the bible and asked whether each of the contenders believed it to be the truth. All of them, including the thrice-married Giuliani,…

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