How well did you do at forecasting the political scene last year?
The final results for the 2007 PBC prediction competition have now been number-crunched – the top 20 are shown above, while the full results are available via the link below. Congratulations to the leading forecasters and thanks to everyone who took part.
2007 – a brief look back
The 2007 political year has now been put to bed, in many ways a momentous year for politics both at home and abroad. The decade-long Blair era came to an end and Brown finally made it to Downing Street, enjoying a summer honeymoon before the election that wasn’t, and suffering an autumn where Labour’s popularity nose-dived. The Conservatives finished the year top dog in the polls, while Clegg took over at the helm of the Lib Dems, leaving Campbell joining IDS as one of the few party leaders of the modern era never to fight an election. The SNP took power following the nail-biting Scottish election, while Plaid Cymru joined the government at Cardiff, and the DUP and Sinn Fein formed a historic power-sharing administration at Stormont.
Abroad too there were plenty of key events. Sarkozy saw off Royal in May’s French Presidential election, while later that month Bertie Ahern became the first three-time Taioseach since De Valera. November saw John Howard’s 11-year rule come to an end in Australia as Labor under Kevin Rudd won their first election since 1993. Switzerland saw the first change in its governing parties since 1959, as the “Magic Formula” ended with the SVP pulling out of the coalition, while Cristina Kirchner became Argentina’s new President. The autumn also saw centre-right governments re-elected in Greece and Denmark, but one of the year’s major (and most tragic) events occurred in the last few days with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.
The American election will kick off for real later this week with the Iowa caucuses, but the debates, fundraising, and candidates moving up and down in the polls and the markets has provided a backdrop to much of the 2007 political year. We’ve seen Obama emerge as a very real threat to Hillary, while in the GOP, Fred Thompson seems to have already come and gone, McCain has risen from the dead, the recent “Huckaboom” may now be starting to fade, while Giuliani and Romney finish the year as the market leaders in the battle to succeed Bush as the Republican candidate. By early February, the picture should be clearer after “Super Duper Tuesday” – a full nine months ahead of the presidential election.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”