Thanks to the excellent efforts of Peter the Punter (Peter Smith) and Augustus Carp (David Langshaw) the fourth site party was held on Friday night. Ladbrokes helped with some sponsorship to keep the costs down. It would be great if in the comments thread those who were there could identify some of those in the pictures. I am in the top right shot with the William Hague haircut. This is a group shot. Mike Smithson
Will Bill and Hillary be happy after Obama’s big win? Please continue the discussion here. Latest betting on the Democratic nomination is here. What is interesting tonight is the sheer scale of Obama’s victory which totally dwarfs what the polls were suggesting. UPDATE – 0300: With a likely margin of 27-28% the polls were further out here than they were in New Hampshire. It’s very easy to get carried away by the moment and certainly there has been a big…
Within the past few minutes we have had the news that Peter Hain has resigned. The move follows an announcement by the Electoral Commission announced that it had referred the issue of undeclared donations to his deputy leadership campaign to the police. The question now is what will be the political impact? This had also been a betting market – at one stage you could have got 7-1 that he would be out this month. Mike Smithson
Do PMQs really turn the voters off? According to a report in the Independent yesterday Gordon Brown is telling friends that the public is being increasingly repelled by PMQs and that the Commons exchanges are now of little use in discussing the issues of the day. He’s reported as saying that “nothing prepares you” for the ferocity of a packed chamber in full cry” and that the weekly event is worse than it has ever been I’m not so sure….
Who’ll come out best when there is so much uncertainty? After a day which saw the Northern Rock bailout plan, the start of the EU treaty process in the Commons and the Channel 4 programme on Ken’s record as Mayor these are the headlines in the “serious” papers this morning. It’s hard to focus on a specific political theme because, as Simon Hoggart in the Guardian puts is “..Outside in the real world the stock market was melting down..” If…
Is winning a third term starting to look doubtful? If you want proof that May’s fight for the London Mayoralty might not be the foregone conclusion that the betting markets currently suggest then do what I did last night – go to Google News and input the words “Ken Livingstone”. The top few results are featured in the screen shot above – and just looking down the list you can see that he might be in some trouble. What’s particularly…
Is McCain becoming unstoppable? With the next big battle in the GOP race taking place in the Michigan primary tomorrow new national polls have reported leads of 8% and 15% for John McCain – the 71 year old who in the run up to Christmas looked as though he was finished. He’s now the 1.38/1 favourite to take the prize. Tomorrow all eyes will be focussed on Michigan which is really the last big chance for Mitt Romney to make…
Making this work effectively For some time now Mike has reserved a small corner of Politicalbetting.com for recorded wagers. The idea is that if two posters can agree terms between themselves, they can actually have their bet formalized to the extent that it is recorded here for posterity and for others to view and comment on. The advantages are fairly obvious. The record makes it clear what the terms are and we can all share in the fun of applauding…