Could the GOP be repeating the mistake of 1996? Anybody thinking of betting on John McCain for the White House should take a look at one or two articles recently that have started to draw parallels between his presidential bid and the last time the Republicans chose a candidate in his early 70s – Bob Dole. Like McCain Bob Dole is a war hero having won two purple hearts and one bronze star. Only a few weeks before the German…
..and two-thirds want an early referendum on independence? A YouGov poll carried out during the week north of the border has found a big boost for the SNP and suggests a possible problem for Labour in retaining seats in the country at the next general election. Like most Scottish polls it is in three parts:- Westminster General Election with changes on May 2005. SNP 31% (+13): Lab 35% (-5): Con: 17% (+1): Lib: 12% (-11): Oth: 4% Scottish Parliament constituency…
The Grand National 2008 One popular misconception about this race is that it’s a lottery which serious punters would swerve. In fact, until about ten years ago it was one of the easiest races in which to find value bets and was therefore eagerly anticipated by the greedy hordes of professional backers. This all changed when Senior Handicapper, Phil Smith (no relation), started taking a radical view of the weights allocated to each horse. In essence, he started to show…
Where London Will be Won and Lost One of the striking features of the London Mayoral election of 2004 was just how strongly Ken Livingstone performed in prosperous parts of the Capital, many of which are strongly Conservative in local elections. Boroughs like Croydon, (where the Conservatives had a 9% lead over Labour in the local elections of 2002), Harrow (where they had a 7% lead), Redbridge and Richmond (both gained by the Conservatives in 2002) and most surprising of…
Will this change many votes? The latest twist in the contest for London Mayor are the revelations that Ken Livingstone has had five children by three different women. However, Ken has dismissed claims that the issue will affect his campaign. Responding to a question that some people might be shocked by the revelation, he said: “Clearly, I don’t think anybody in this city is shocked about what consenting adults do.” So will this alter many people’s choices when they cast…
PPP poll shows him ahead by 45-43, trails 49-38 among white voters A poll out today for Public Policy Polling in Pennsylvania shows Obama now leading in a state where Clinton has been enjoying comfortable leads. As ever though, the question is how reliable PPP is as a pollster, and whether this is a reliable indicator or should be taken with a pinch of salt. Obama is currently available at 3.1 to win the Keystone State on 22 April, so…
Do the “April fool” video and stealing policies smack of desperation? With just over a month to go and yesterday’s YouGov poll confirming that Livingstone has a lot of ground to make up, it’s starting to look as though the Mayor recognises the scale of his task means that almost any tactic can be tried in order to win votes. At last night’s debate, he said to Johnson: “I’m stealing your policies. What sort of idiot, when they hear a…
Boris 47, Ken 37, Brian 10 – Boris leads 56-44 after second preferences A new poll out today for the Evening Standard / ITV London Tonight shows Boris Johnson, who officially opened his campaign today, with a 10-point lead over Ken Livingstone, while the Lib Dems’ Brian Paddick trails on 10% of first preferences. After re-allocating second preferences, this translates into a 12-point lead for Boris of 56-44, or a swing of about 11% from the performance of Steve Norris…