politicalbetting.com

Is Boris about to become the next Mayor? I have just received information from a source who has proved totally reliable in the past about the YouGov poll that will be published in the Evening Standard tomorrow. This is the final survey of the campaign and according to the information I have been given Boris is leading Ken 44%-36% on first preferences. After second preferences that becomes 53% to 47%. The same source has given me advance information about other…

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Monday saw a massive 115,794 page down-loads I’ve just got the traffic figures for the site for yesterday when there were 115,794 separate page downloads – only the second time we have broken through the 100k mark. The last time was that Saturday in October when Gordon called off the election. Also April has already become the site’s busiest ever month even though there is still a day and a bit to go. Total page down-loads are 1,667,234 which exceeds…

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“16% of those who think they are registered aren’t” In its final Mayoral poll MORI agreed to a suggestion of mine and asked whether those interviewed were actually on the electoral register. They found that only 92% were. Now a report from the Electoral Commission suggests that the proportion not on the register could be much higher than that. The pollster NOP was commissioned and it found that 16% of people who thought they were on the electoral roll were…

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The only detail at the moment is from Andrew Grice’s blog at the paper. He writes: “If Gordon Brown was hoping that the row over his decision to abolish the 10p lower rate of income tax would not damage Labour, he’ll be very disappointed by the latest monthly ComRes survey for The Independent. The Tories have doubled their lead since last month from seven to 14 points, the biggest since ComRes began polling for the paper in September 2006.” That’s…

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Will there be more gloom for Gordon – but what about Ken? There are a number of key polls expected in the tomorrow’s Sunday papers. One of them – MORI for the Observer – was spotted by an eagle-eyed PB contributor last night and we got news of the Tory 9% lead at least a day ahead of anybody else. There’s also going to be a full ICM national voting intention survey in the Sunday Telegraph – and already there…

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Are we seeing the Observer’s poll two days early? After the big boost for the Tories in this morning’s YouGov poll there’s another national survey out which shows a growing Conservative lead. The MORI Monitor for April has been published on the firm’s website, apparently by mistake, and shows the following shares with the changes on March: CON 40% (nc): LAB 31% (-4): LD 19% (+1). My understanding was that this poll was for the Observer on Sunday. The fieldwork…

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