CONSERVATIVES 43% (+4) LABOUR 32% (+1) LIB DEMS 12% (-4) How can we explain the contradictory findings? So what are we to make of all of this. First we get the YouGov poll covered in the previous thread where the Tory lead is down to 5%. Then we see the latest ComRes poll for the IoS which reports a Tory share of 43% and a lead of 11%. My guess is that a much larger proportion of the ComRes fieldwork…
Will George Osborne be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer? With all the talk swirling around George Osborne’s ‘breach of convention’ by commenting on the sharp decline of the pound against the dollar and euro, and what appears to be a co-ordinated campaign led by the Telegraph newspaper to see him moved, I decided to check Betfair’s ‘Next Chancellor market’. George Osborne is still the favourite if you consider the last traded price (3.8 for Osborne, 5.1 for Ed Balls),…
Steamrollers can be tricky to drive In the rush to try and secure 60 US Senate seats, and to breach the 250-seat mark in the House of Representatives, I wonder whether the Obama campaign ever considered that you could have too much of a good thing. For instance, I found it strange that, with such a fundraising advantage, Obama wasn’t redistributing his campaign’s wealth to tight Congressional races. This would have allowed for extra members of the Democratic majority in…
Will Obama’s former rival become part of his team? There are reports in the US media this evening that Hillary Clinton might be offered a key role in Barack Obama’s government which formally takes power on January 20th 2009. According to CNN the two former rivals met in Chicago at Obama’a request and the speculation is that she might be being offered the role of Secretary of State. The suggestion is that such an appointment would allow him to focus…
Did it go wrong with his evasive PMQ responses? It’s perhaps hard to recall but just two days ago when the Baby P PMQ row first blew up it was running down towards the bottom of the bulletins. There were several other stories getting the attention and it looked as though Brown might have been able to move on. Not so today with further revelations about the handling of the case emerging and the Prime Minister having to make statements…
How can Gord avoid Dave’s deliberate wind-ups? No doubt that on his flight across the Atlantic for the G20 meeting Gordon Brown will be reflecting on yesterday’s PMQs which seemed to go horribly wrong. Could the Cameron approach not have been the accident it appeared to be but was it part of a carefully worked out plan to undermine him? I’ve just been asked that question by a journalist who suggested that I might have predicted yesterday’s PMQ flare-up in…
(According to the UK Polling Report seat guide the Nottinghamshire seat of Broxtowe is Tory Target number 42 and requires a swing of just 2.35%. Yet can Nick, who became the first MP poster prepared to contribute here under his own name four years ago, manage to hold on? In one sense he is honoured for his constituency is the first where betting has now opened. So the subject of incumbency is pretty close to Nick’s heart and he has…
Does the data support the “heartlands” theory? My apologies for the third post in succession about the Populus poll but it has been the most sensational survey that we’ve seen in months and it does merit close examination. The detail has now been made available and one element sticks out – how well Labour polled in Scotland in the immediate three days after the Glenrothes by election. Just look at the numbers above which I should explain don’t represent individual…