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Darling’s statement – the continuation thread Alistair Darling has given his Pre-Budget Report speech, with the highlights being largely as expected: VAT cut from 17.5% to 15% for 13 months beginning on Monday, and an increase in the basic rate of Income Tax to 45% for those earning over £150,000. What had not been leaked was the increase in National Insurance Contributions by 0.5% from April 2011 which has been targetted by George Osborne in his rebuttal. Similarly, I would…

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And what else might happen in this term? I was a little surprised at the recent non-announcement that Hillary Clinton is to be offered the job of Secretary of State by President-Elect Obama. Unlike others, I see her as perfectly well qualified, and can understand that after having come so close to leading her party that her junior status in the Senate was not particularly appealing. I have no doubt that her network and reputation will allow her to do…

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Is his position-play strong enough to overcome a weak hand? Many years before I started political betting, I was an avid poker player. I wasn’t tremendously successful, but I broke even or better at some pretty tough clubs, and knew the game as well as most. As one of the few games with as rich a literature as chess, I understood this princely game sufficiently to appreciate the very best, even if I wasn’t worthy of sitting opposite them. I…

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Has the PM been transformed into a “risk taker”? On the Andrew Neil programme last night Michael Portillo made an acute observation which I’ve been thrashing about in my mind ever since – that recent events have led to a transformation in Brown’s character and that he might have become a risk-taker and a gambler. At the time of the Glenrothes by-election I pondered that that for him to become so personally involved was an enormous risk. If Labour hadn’t…

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Last May, it will be recalled, Ipsos-MORI lanuched a major review of its methodology after its performance in the Ken-Boris battle for London. The firm stopped publishing results for a couple of months before it announced big changes and this latest poll embraces measures to stop Labour being over-stated. A major element of the reform was to identify and weight the public sector workers in their samples who have tendency to be much more pro-Labour and anti-Tory than the electorate…

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CONSERVATIVES 40% (-5) LABOUR 37% (+7) LIB DEMS 12% (-2) Could this increase the chances of a 2009 election? MORI has just sent me the headline figures which appear above and have confirmed to me that the shares relate to those who are 100% certain to vote. This is a sensational poll for Labour and there can be little doubt that it will step up the pressure for an early election. One thing is clear – MORI is living up…

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