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So why not do the same with share prices? Our genial host, Mike Smithson, is furious this morning because amidst a number of newspaper stories about who might return to Labour’s fold the Independent on Sunday is quoting what look like betting odds which he cannot find being publicly available anywhere. There is no source mentioned by the paper and nothing to suggest that these might have been created in the newsroom. Mike writes: “The validity of betting odds is…

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But will YouGov be overstating UKIP again? With the next EU elections due to take place at the start of June there’s a first poll, from YouGov in the Sunday Telegraph, which suggested that both Labour and the Tories are going to do better then they did last time. These are the figures with comparison on the 2004 EU election result:- CON 35 (+8): LAB 29 (+6): LD 15 (NC): UKIP 7 (-9): GRN 5 (-1): BNP 4: SNP/PC 4…

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The Menu Has Changed There once was a time that Britain had a fairly straighforward choice of restaurant. Our beloved class structure, in which every Earl and urchine knew his place, and each understood the choice of fare that was offered. They were simpler days, before we infused our gastronomy with foreign flavours, and yielded in silent homage (rhymes with fromage) to the culinary imperatives of Continental cuisine. Sadly those days are gone, and the Blonde and I this week…

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CONSERVATIVES 41% (-1) LABOUR 34% (-1) LIB DEMS 15% (+1) Does this show that the Brown bounce is over? The first poll of 2009, a YouGov survey for the Sun, has the Tories still on a seven point lead. Compared with the last survey from the pollster before Christmas both Labour and the Tories are down a point with the LDs up one. This is clearly very little change but the fact that the Tories are still in the 40s…

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What about 3/1 that it will be 0% during the year? With the bank rate hitting its lowest ever level in more than three centuries since the Bank of England was founded there’s now some betting interest on where this is all going to. William Hill’s are offering odds of 3/1 that the Rate will hit 0% at some stage during 2009. This is available online – but like other political markets from the firm you won’t be able to…

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Where’s the money going in key marginals? The big move in the 2005 general election, of course, was the switch of 5-6% of the voters from Labour to the Lib Dems at a time when the Iraq War was still a major influence. Many of the starting positions in individual seats that Nick Clegg’s party will have next time will have been underpinned by this big swing. The critical question is whether these groups will go back, stick with the…

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You can see other work by Marf at LondonSketchbook.com

Michael Kennedy is the 2008 PB Forecaster of the Year The final results for the 2008 prediction competition have now been number-crunched – the top 20 are shown above, while the full results are available via the link below. Congratulations to the leading forecasters, with Michael Kennedy finishing ahead of Houndtang and Ian Hunter, and thanks to everyone who took part. Just check out the questions here. PB 2008 competition results For the 2008 events section, only two players predicted…

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