Michael Kennedy is the 2008 PB Forecaster of the Year
The final results for the 2008 prediction competition have now been number-crunched – the top 20 are shown above, while the full results are available via the link below. Congratulations to the leading forecasters, with Michael Kennedy finishing ahead of Houndtang and Ian Hunter, and thanks to everyone who took part.
Just check out the questions here.
For the 2008 events section, only two players predicted Joe Biden to be elected Vice-President (70% got Obama in the White House, with the competition coming right after the Iowa caucuses), while only 36% predicted Boris to see off Ken, and a mere 16% forecasted a No vote in the Irish EU referendum.
All of the “big four” in the Cabinet managed to last the year, despite Jacqui Smith’s average predicted tenure being just 253 days, with Darling not much better at 287. The final ICM/Guardian highs and lows were 45-37 for the Conservatives, 35-25 for Labour, and 22-17 for the Lib Dems, while the Conservative lead varied from a massive 20 to a shaky 2 points.
Finally, the often tricky to predict May local elections, including adjustments for the London Assembly, saw the Conservatives up 259 seats, the Lib Dems up by 31, while Labour were down by 333.