YouGov EURO ELECTION: CON 26 LAB 16 LD 15 UKIP 18 GRN 10 BNP 5 But could the Lib Dems push them into fourth place? The final YouGov poll for tomorrow’s election to the European parliament is out and has Labour at the lowest level it has recorded during the campaign – a bare 16%. These are figures based on those “certain to vote”. If you include the “non-100% certains” a very different picture emerges. According to the Telegraph ”…
Meanwhile the re-shuffle is “under-way” Within the past ten minutes the news organisation began reporting that Brown’s reshuffle is under-way. Maybe we will start to get news this evening. It looks as though David Cameron’s predecessor as MP for Witney is heading for Jacqui Smith’s old job at the Home Office. In recent months the former “That’s Life” researcher and colleague of Esther Rantzen has become very close to the PM. A job in one of the main offices of…
Can the old survivor do it again? Well the day has gone on and Number 10’s spin machine has been desperately trying to spin that the Hazel Blear resignation wasn’t timed to cause maximum embarrassment to Mr. Brown. Yet as was pointed out at PMQs – she’s the local government minister and there are local elections tomorrow. “It was just that she was fed up of being hounded by the media” – they say of her motives. “No – this…
Are we seeing a co-ordinated attack on Brown’s leadership The news this morning, barely an hour and half before PMQs is due to start, that Hazel Blears is resigning looks like it’s part of a plan to undermine Brown just before he takes part in what could be his most critical session. For with the growing noise about Mr Brown’s leadership it could just be possible that today will be the last occasion on which he takes PMQs. Next Wednesday…
ComRes WESTMINSTER: CON 30(-10) LAB 22(+1) LD 18 (nc) Tonight’s second shock poll is from ComRes for the Independent which shows a dramatic collapse in the Tory vote to just 30% while Labour is up one point at 22%. Fieldwork took place from Friday until Sunday at exactly the same time as this evening’s MORI poll which had C40-L18-LD18. So how come that all the other firms which have polled in recent days have the Conservatives in the range of…
Ipsos-MORI WESTMINSTER: CON 40(-1) LAB 18(-10) LD 18 (4) The “others” break down: * Scottish/Welsh national: 4% * Greens: 6% * UKIP: 7% * BNP: 4% * Other: 3% It must be remembered that MORI have a very strict filter on their headline figures and ONLY include those who are 100% certain to vote. This can have the effect of the pollster showing quite turbulent findings. Clearly, at the moment, Labour supporters have little certainty to vote – hence the…
Why are returning officers being stricter? I’ve been getting reports, which by their very nature have to be unofficial, that in many places the officers running Thursday’s elections are taking a very tough line on postal votes which are currently being received and verified. In several local authority areas the number of reject ballots is running at more than one in four. A common reason is that voters have not filled in their date of birth correctly – a measure…
Would it be foolish to topple Brown now? I’ve had a number of conversations about the pending Fall of Brown with a wide variety of political types over the last week or two, and so from the outset I’d like to acknowledge that some of the genesis of this article belongs to them as much as to my own musing.* David Herdson’s excellent article last week asked whether the election ‘campaign’ for Speaker might be just enough to deter the…