YouGov EURO ELECTION:
CON 26 LAB 16 LD 15 UKIP 18 GRN 10 BNP 5
But could the Lib Dems push them into fourth place?
The final YouGov poll for tomorrow’s election to the European parliament is out and has Labour at the lowest level it has recorded during the campaign – a bare 16%. These are figures based on those “certain to vote”.
If you include the “non-100% certains” a very different picture emerges. According to the Telegraph ” the Tory vote share jumps to 37 per cent, with Labour in second place on 21 per cent and the Lib Dems in third on 19 per cent. Ukip support drops to just 8 per cent, reflecting the party’s lack of “casual” sympathisers.
So much in this election depends on turnout that it is extremely challenging for the pollsters to come up with accurate figures. Having said that this same poll from YouGov before the 2004 election was pretty much in the right ball-park although it did over-state Labour and UKIP
There is a serious error in the Telegraph report of the poll. It says that the Tories got 37% in 2004. The actual share was 26.7%. Let’s hope the paper amended this during the evening.
I am not aware of any other final EU polls but there might be.