CON 42% (+2) LAB 25% (+1) LD 18% (+1) YouGov have Tories over 40%, ComRes say not quite ITN have announced a new YouGov poll which has the Conservatives increasing their lead over Labour to 17 points, but all major parties gaining slightly at the expense of ‘Others’. This implies that the mistrust of the major parties over expenses at the time of the European elections has largely died away, which won’t be good news for the Greens in Norwich…
How can £20bn be justified without more helicopters? The main story of the weekend is the ongoing row about how well resourced British troops in Afghanistan are, and what needs to be done to lessen the recent casualty rate. Sir Richard Dannet and Sir Jock Stirrup have both been widely quoted, and David Cameron and Nick Clegg have also piled the pressure on the government. The other defence story this weekend is the delay to the decision about Trident. Afghanistan…
FT.com Should you be taking the 50/1 on him getting the job? At the start of the year I took out a bet at 200/1 with Ladbrokes that Peter Mandelson would be Prime Minister on December 31st 2009. This always seemed remote because Mandy took a life peerage last October which would make it impossible for him to sit again in the house of commons. But late last night the above story appeared in the FT which goes on:- “On…
Do voters like the man but not the Tories? There’s an interesting article by Andrew Grice in the Independent who has had, as he says, “a peek” at some of Labour’s private polling. He writes: “..Labour asked small groups of voters how people would feel if they woke up to find there was a Tory government. “No different” and “no change” were frequent answers. So the Tories’ “now for change” slogan hasn’t worked yet. How would people feel if Labour…
Or are the markets overreacting again? Two disclaimers to begin with: firstly, as I’ve already admitted, the Conservative candidate in Norwich is a friend of mine. Irrespective of party, I think she’d make a great MP, and I hope she wins, but unfortunately, that means I cannot write without bias about the Norwich North by-election, so I won’t particularly try. Secondly, my betting record in UK by-elections is rubbish. Awful. Embarassingly bad. I make a very healthy profit on US…
BBC News August 2006 Has an MP ever insulted his constituents so much? After a week’s by election campaigning when “which candidate is the most local” seems to have been the dominant issue I’m reminded of my favourite moment during the career of the outgoing MP, Ian Gibson. For the curtain should not be allowed to close on his political career without reference to what to my mind is one of the best political insults ever – the day that…
HenryG asks: “Could Swine Flu Save the PM?” The rapidly increasing numbers of people infected with swine flu will have a huge impact on the UK in the next year. Forecasts of up to 66,000 swine flu deaths this Christmas will have a devastating impact on communities, public services and also the economy. The UK Government is recognised to have some of the best preparations in the world and the most plentiful arrangements for tamiflu. By no means am I…
A year on from his “bid” how much credibility does he have left? There isn’t a political version of the Hollywood Stock Exchange (perhaps there ought to be), but if there were, the share price of David Miliband, probably rated a “sell” since last autumn’s Conference, would have been in free-fall after the recent Cabinet reshuffle. For those hoping to see the termination of Brown’s premiership, it had been an exciting few days, with the rolling resignations of Smith and…